Simulation And Experimental Study On Runway Temperature Prediction Based On Multi-factor Coupling

With the increase of flight density year by year,the safe and efficient operation of runway is becoming more and more important.Therefore,in order to avoid or reduce the closing time of the airport due to runway icing and snow,it is necessary to solve the problem of accurate early warning of runway icing and snow.Accurate weather forecast and reliable runway temperature prediction are the necessary conditions for quasi early warning of runway icing phenomenon,especially the accurate change of runway temperature trend in the next ten minutes or even several hours,which provides suggestions for the decision-making of whether to close the runway,when to close it and the best time for runway deicing / snow removal.Therefore,the research on the law of runway temperature evolution is particularly important.First,based on the principle of energy conservation and the theory of heat transfer,the mechanism of influence factors on the evolution of the runway temperature field is studied,and the degree of influence of each influence factor on the evolution of the runway temperature field is analyzed.The factor analysis method is used to extract common factors from multiple factors that affect the runway temperature field.On this basis,the weight calculation model is improved to calculate the weight value of each influencing factor in the evolution of the runway temperature field.Secondly,based on the calculation of multi-factor influencing parameters of the runway temperature field,the boundary conditions of the runway temperature field prediction are established.The runway heat conduction equation is established by analyzing the heat conduction mechanism of the runway temperature field,and the finite difference method is used to solve it,and then a multi-factor runway temperature field prediction model is established.Because the prediction results of the runway temperature field prediction model have certain residuals,according to the grey system theory,the GM(1.1)model is used to correct the runway temperature prediction residuals.By coupling the GM(1.1)model and the runway temperature prediction model,the short-term accurate prediction of the runway temperature field is finally realized.Thirdly,in view of the four conditions of rainfall,snowfall,no rain and snow,and runway icing that often occur on the runway,the finite element simulation software is used to analyze the evolution of the runway temperature field in each state,and the runway temperature prediction model can be obtained under the four types of conditions.Applicable.According to the actual operation of the runway under the four types of conditions,further considering the wind speed,relative humidity,flight density and other factors,and after the multi-factor coupling,the evolution of the runway temperature field is analyzed,and the coupling factors affect the runway temperature under the four types of conditions.The law of field evolution.Finally,the experimental system for predicting runway temperature is designed.The experimental system can simulate the change of runway temperature field under four types of conditions: rainfall,snowfall,no rain and snow,and runway icing.Using the built runway temperature prediction experimental system,under four types of runway conditions,the multi-factor runway temperature field prediction model established in Chapter 4 and the finite element analysis results of the multi-factor runway temperature field evolution law in Chapter5 was tested to verify the runway.The accuracy and reliability of the temperature field prediction.