Study On Collaborative Development Evaluation Model Of Regional Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Water,energy and food of the three resource not only belong to the category of basic science,but also the category of social superstructure must focus on national security,protection of water resources,energy and food resources security relationship with the economic and social sustainable development.The current rural revitalization is carrying out in full swing,the water resources,energy and food resources,much attention has been paid to cooperative security,however,the rapid development of current industrialization brought about by the destruction of ecological environment,climate warming,the continuously increasing pressure of population and so on the sustainable development of water resources,energy and food resources bring great pressure and challenge.In this big background,the paper is devoted to the use of complex adaptive system theory,synergetics theory,sustainable development theory as water,energy,such as a correlation integral coupling analysis,analysis of multi-factor coupling drive mechanism,and to establish a scientific and reasonable the coordinated development of regional water and energy-food association system evaluation method.Through theoretical analysis,the paper from the elements,subsystem layer,system layer built a bottom-up,development and collaborative comprehensive evaluation of the coordinated development of regional water-energy-food-nexus system evaluation model,and in Heilongjiang province as an example,the evaluation of Heilongjiang province in 2010-2019 and forecasts the water-energy-food-nexus system on the synergy development status,and it is concluded that the degree of synergy over the next five years,The feasible measures are suggested.Specific results are as follows:(1)The paper analysis the relevant literature and summarizes the progress and shortcomings of the research on the collaborative development of water-energy-food-nexus system at home and abroad,and explores the evolution mode and development law of complex adaptation system.(2)In the coordinated development of regional water-energy-food-nexus based on the analysis of the evolution characteristics,on the basis of comprehensive principles,the principle of representative,the objectivity principle,the principle of accessibility,integrity principle,the principle can be characterized and measurability,the regional water and energy-food association system is divided into subsystems of water,energy,food resources subsystems,The evaluation index system of regional water-energy-food-nexus system with three layers and 24 indicators was constructed.And,the article through to the CRITIC weight method of the advantages and disadvantages of the analysis,the original CRITIC weight method of the corresponding improvement to each subsystem index weight.(3)Based on the theory of system co-evolution,the paper establishes an evaluation model for the collaborative development of regional water-energy-food-nexus system,and evaluates and analyzes the development degree and synergistic effect from bottom to top and from inside to outside in element layer,subsystem layer and system layer respectively.Based on the evaluation results,a combination prediction model of synergistic development degree was constructed based on gray prediction and ARIMA prediction model.(4)Taking Heilongjiang Province as an example and combining with the development status of regional water,energy and food,the paper evaluates the coordinated development status of water-energy-food-nexus system in Heilongjiang Province from 2010 to 2019,and obtains the subsystem development degree,subsystem coordination degree,subsystem collaborative development degree,system coupling degree and system development degree.In addition,the collaborative development degree from 2020 to 2024 is predicted,and corresponding measures are proposed based on the evaluation and prediction results.