Research On Opening Of High-speed Railway,House Price Fluctuation And Population Migration

With the rapid development of China’s urbanization process,the problem of population size change and differentiation between cities has emerged.To promote coordinated regional development,it is very important to guide the rational migration of population as the engine of economic development.However,the current complex situation of large-scale immigration and emigration in China has brought difficulties to population regulation.Clarifying the trend and influencing factors of population migration is of great significance to reasonably guide population migration.The rapid development of high-speed railway has provided great convenience for the inflow of population into cities and promoted the development of the first stage of population migration in China.However,with the rise of urban house prices,the foreign permanent population can not really "live" in the place of immigration,and a large number of people move out of the city.Based on this,this thesis will explore the impact of the opening of high-speed railway and house price on population migration,as well as the regulatory role of house price in the impact of the opening of highspeed railway on population migration.This thesis uses the panel data of 285 cities from 2003 to 2019 to study.The empirical model selects the multi-stage double difference model.Firstly,a benchmark model is constructed to analyze the impact of the opening of high-speed rail and house prices on population migration;Further,the interaction term is added on the basis of the benchmark model to observe the regulatory role of house prices in the impact of high-speed rail on population migration.Select the total urban resident population as the explanatory variable,and make a comparative analysis with the population migration model to further study the impact of high-speed rail and house prices.On the basis of full sample analysis,divide the samples according to geographical region and city scale,and observe the gap between sub samples.The results show that: firstly,in the whole sample,the impact of the opening of high-speed railway and the rise of house prices on population migration is significantly negative,and the impact on the permanent population is significantly positive,that is,the opening of high-speed railway will promote population agglomeration,but with the passage of time,the agglomeration effect will continue to weaken,and finally promote the diffusion and balance of population among regions;Secondly,in the full sample adjustment effect model,the rise of house prices will weaken the negative impact of the opening of high-speed railway on population migration and enhance the positive impact of the opening of highspeed railway on the resident population.The results of the two models show that the rise of house prices hinders the positive effect of the opening of high-speed railway on population diffusion;Thirdly,the benchmark regression results of sub samples show that the opening of high-speed railway will reduce the migrant population in the eastern region,but increase the migrant population in the central region.The impact of the opening of high-speed railway on population aggregation will gradually change from aggregation effect to diffusion effect,promoting the balanced distribution of population.The study of sub samples of urban scale also shows that the effect of high-speed railway on population will move from aggregation to diffusion;Fourthly,the regression results of sub sample adjustment effect also show that the rise of house prices will weaken the diffusion effect of high-speed rail on the population and expand the regional population distribution gap.Combined with the research conclusions,this thesis puts forward the following three suggestions: firstly,pay attention to the negative impact of house prices on population migration,adhere to housing without speculation,and explore real estate regulation policies according to local conditions;Secondly,further improve the high-speed railway network and narrow the differences in railway layout among regions;Thirdly,pay attention to the effect of the opening of high-speed railway on population migration and prevent the expansion of regional gap.