Guiyang-Guangzhou High-Speed Railway Open’s:Research On The Effects Of Population And Economic Agglomeration In Guizhou Province

The first high-speed railway opened in Guizhou Province,Guizhou-Guangzhou high-speed Railway,has brought great opportunities to the relatively backward Guizhou Province.It has improved the mountainous area of Guizhou with many obstacles and rugged roads,improved regional accessibility,promoted the inter-regional flow of factors,and reshaped the population distribution and economic spatial distribution of counties in Guizhou Province.In the past decade,most of China’s counties have been slowly losing population,and the "siphon effect" caused by increasingly convenient high-speed rail is a problem facing high-quality development.Counties are important units in the strategy of rural revitalization and new-type urbanization.Whether the opening of high-speed railway can be taken as a turning point to give full play to the advantages of high-speed railway in population and economic agglomeration in a wider range and at a deeper level,and get rid of the disadvantages in location,is the focus of this paper.This paper takes Guizhuan-Guangzhou high-speed railway as an example,collates panel data from 2009 to 2020,and attempts to establish a differential model to explore the effect of high-speed railway in Guizhou Province.Since the Guizhou-Guangzhou high-speed railway was opened on December 26,2014,2015 was taken as the time node,and7 counties along the line were taken as the experimental group,while 13 counties adjacent to it without high-speed railway were taken as the control group.The empirical analysis was mainly carried out from two aspects of population and economic agglomeration.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The regression results of the county floating population rate show that in the model without any control variable,the influence coefficient is positive and significant at the significance level of0.05.When the control variables are added into the model successively,the influence coefficient of high-speed railway is positive,which indicates that the Guizhou-Guangzhou high-speed railway has a positive impact on the population inflow in counties along the line,while the population in non-counties along the line gathers in counties along the line.(2)The regression results of county GDP show that: when the control variables are added into the model successively,the influence coefficient of high-speed rail is significantly negative,indicating that the Guizhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail has a negative effect on the economic development of counties along the line,and the GDP growth rate of counties with high-speed rail service is lower than that of counties without high-speed rail service.The possible reason lies in the fact that the Guy-Guangzhou high-speed railway connects Guiyang City of Guizhou Province and Guangzhou City of Guangdong Province,breaking the transportation bottleneck between Guangdong,Guangxi and Guizhou provinces and transferring production factors to the economically developed areas.This gap will cause the resources from the economically underdeveloped areas to flow into the developed areas in a short period of time,resulting in a "Siphon Effect".(3)Parallel trend test and placebo test were conducted for the difference-difference model.A synthetic differential model and a multiphase differential model are established to test robustness.The results of the three models are compared and analyzed,and it is proved that the opening of Guizhou-Guangzhou high-speed railway has a significant inducement and enhancement effect on population flow,but has a negative effect on county economic development.