Research On Production Decision Of Automobile Manufacturer Based On "Dual Credit" Transaction

In the past few years,the increasingly prominent environmental and energy problems have aroused widespread concern among governments and people from all walks of life.New energy vehicles have zero pollution and zero emissions,and the development of new energy vehicles is an important means to effectively alleviate these problems.To sustain the development of new energy vehicles and take over the subsidy policy,China started to implement the "dual credits" policy in 2018.However,the current research on the dual credit policy mainly focuses on policy analysis and comparison,and the research on how to optimize the production operation of enterprises under the "dual credit" policy rules is not deep enough.Given this,the paper carries out a study on the production decision of automakers based on "dual credits" trading,which mainly includes.(1)A Gounod competition model between traditional automakers and new energy vehicle manufacturers is developed with the exogenous price of dual credits as the variable,the new energy vehicle production decisions of the two automakers are analyzed,and the impact of the dual credits policy on the decision results is investigated.It is found that: the impact of the trading price of new energy vehicle points,the average fuel consumption requirement of enterprises,the points of each new energy vehicle model,and the target value of fuel consumption on the production of new energy vehicles of traditional automakers is positively correlated,and the impact on the production of vehicles of new energy vehicle manufacturers is negatively correlated.(2)With the price of dual credits as a linear function of points trading volume,the production decisions of fuel vehicle manufacturers and new energy vehicle manufacturers and the mechanism of the impact of dual credits policy on the decision results are investigated.It is found that when the demand coefficient of dual credits is large,the effects of the average fuel consumption requirement of enterprises,the points of each model of new energy vehicles,and the target value of fuel consumption on the production of fuel vehicles are negatively correlated,and the effects on the production of new energy vehicles are positively correlated.(3)Based on the previous study,the Black-Scholes option pricing model is introduced to portray the attributes of price uncertainty and management flexibility of dual credit trading,and the price of dual credit options is analyzed accordingly.It is found that under the directional trading model,the dual credit transaction between car companies can be regarded as an option problem,and the Black-Scholes option pricing model applies to the dual credit option pricing model.In this paper,we analyze the production decision of automakers and explore the influence of the regulation parameters of dual credit policy on the decision outcome.The results of this study can provide a reference for the production decision of relevant automakers and provide management insights for automakers to gain a competitive advantage under the regulation of the dual credit policy.