Choice Behavior And Diffusion Impact Mechanism For Connected And Autonomous Vehicle Travelers With The Managed Lanes

With the deep integration of transportation and connected and autonomous vehicle(CAV)technology,CAV has become the focus of research.What factors influence travelers to choose CAV,what are the differences among different incentives for CAV promotion,how to maximize CAV right-of-way with limited road resources,and what kind of development curve for the number of CAV traveler follows are the key issues to be studied.Firstly,Shenzhen was chosen for the case study because this city has a variety of managed lanes and has experimented with CAV implementations.The questionnaire which included individual characteristics,travel characteristics,cognition and attitude towards CAV,and travel mode choice preference has been designed and used to conduct surveys.The results of descriptive statistical analysis for the surveys show that the majority population in Shenzhen know about CAV,and most of them have a positive attitude towards CAV.Secondly,combined with Innovations Diffusion Theory(IDT)and Technology Acceptance Model(TAM),the theoretical framework of the research was constructed.Multiple indicator multiple cause model(MIMIC)was used to analyze the influence mechanism of objective attribute variables and subjective psychological variables on travel choice intention and the potential relationship between these variables.The results show that individual characteristics,travel characteristics,and vehicle attributes of objective attribute variables have different influence on travel mode choice.Subjective psychological variables,such as attitude towards managed lane setting,perceived usefulness,and perceived ease of use not only affect the intention of travel mode choice,but also influence each other.Finally,the agent model is constructed based on the above results.The travel mode choice function includes travel cost,travel time,technology maturity,lane setting,and social influence.The small world network with high matching with the real society is used to simulate the CAV travelers’ diffusion process.The results show that CAV exclusive lanes are more effective than the strategies that CAV is access to HOV(High Occupancy Vehicle)lanes or bus exclusive lanes in encouraging travelers to accept CAV.The introducing CAV into HOV lane or bus lane can improve the diffusion speed of CAV,but it has little effect on increasing the number of CAV travelers.Setting up CAV lanes or implementing subsidy policies alone has limited effect on CAV promotion,and a variety of combined measures and strategies can be taken.The research in this thesis not only explores the influencing mechanism of external environmental factors and internal subjective factors on travel mode choice from a macro perspective based on MIMIC model,but also shows the evolution of CAV scale from the perspective of heterogeneous individuals by using agent model,and reflects the interactive influence of community utility on travel mode choice.The promotion of CAV involves policy makers,CAV operators,travelers,and other stakeholders.The results of this research can not only help to understand travelers’ demands from the demand side,but also provide reference for relevant agencies and CAV operators to formulate reasonable CAV implementation policies and implement effective promotion strategies.There are 54 figures,38 tables and 113 references in this thesis.