Research On The Heterogeneous Passengers’ Travel Preferences Formation Process And Travel Mode Choice In The Passenger Corridor

In recent years, the rapid development of China’s high-speed railway provides a new travel choice for the people and has an important influence on the passengers’ travel behavior. The passengers’travel demand also shows some diversification and personalization characteristics gradually. The passengers’travel mode choice process should be a decision-making behavior under the comprehensive effect of multiple factors. This dissertation takes the passengers’travel preferences on different travel modes in passenger corridor as research object. The passengers’travel mode choice influencing factors are analyzed and screened. The passengers are divided into different types and the weight differences among the passengers’travel mode choice influencing factors are analyzed. A passenger travel mode choice-making model combing the complete rationality and bounded rationality is established to research the passengers’ individual decision making (individual decision-making). A multi-Agent based passenger travel choice model is bulit to simulate the passenger share of different transport modes. At last a sensitivity analysis is made for the passenger travel decision-making factors. The main contents of this paper are as follows.(1) To discuss the passengers’motivation and psychology by analyzing the passenger travel demand and transportation supply in the passenger carridor. The passengers’travel preference formation process is analyzed qualitatively and divided into seven stages with feedback loop, which are the travel demand generation, travel information collection, Judgment and decision making, the actual travel perception, travel evaluation, feedback of the travel perception and evaluation information, the formation of stable travel preferences.(2) The passengers’travel choice influencing factor is analyzed and the satisfaction is used as the measuring standard for the passenger travel choice. Based on this, a passenger satisfaction evaluation index system is established and a passenger satisfaction questionnaire is designed to make a survey. The data from the survey is used to construct the passenger satisfaction evaluation knowledge system. The heterogeneous passengers are divided into different types according to the dual attribute of travel purpose and monthly income. The rough set theory is used to reduce the key factors that affect the passengers’ travel decision and calculate the weight of each type of passengers’ travel decision-making factor to make a comparison for different types of passengers’ travel preferences.(3) Combined with the weight of the key factors affecting the passengers’ travel mode choice, a discrete stochastic decision model based on the traditional completely rational and a prospect decision model based on the bounded rationality are established separately. From the complete rationality perspective, the heterogeneous passengers’ value of time is calculated. A random utility theory based passenger travel mode choice model is established by quantifying the passenger travel decision factors. From the bounded rationality perspective, the heterogeneous passengers’ expected comprehensive perception evaluation on different travel modes, which is under the effect of different weight factors, is used to establish the passenger heterogeneous reference point. The differences between the actual perception evaluation and comprehensive expected perception are used to construct the passenger decision value function and decision weights function. The prospect theory based passenger travel perception difference decision-making model is established. The passenger travel choice-making model which combing the complete and bounded rationality is established based on the average weighting method. The Beijing-Wuhan passenger corridor is selected as an example to calculate the heterogeneous passengers’ travel preferences (fuzzy selection probability) on different travel modes. The heterogeneous passengers’ preference difference is also analyzed on different travel modes.(4) The Multi-Agent method is used to research the micro passenger individual’s travel mode choice-making behavior. The Agent can be divided into different types in the travel mode choice-making system. The binary code is used to establish the travel behavior decision-making chain of the passenger Agent and determine the logic and coding rules based on the human element model. The passenger type distribution ratio and the passengers’ travel preference (fuzzy choice probability) for different travel modes is used as the passenger Agent initialization parameters. Some interactive mechanisms, such as the passenger Agent description and travel transfer mechanism, the passenger Agent self-learning mechanism, interaction, learning, mutation mechanism between passenger Agent group, and the interaction mechanism of multi-Agent in the travel decision system, are established to set up the passenger travel choice-making model. The individual behavior characteristic of the heterogeneous passenger is used to emerge the macro characteristics of the passenger travel mode choice-making system.(5) A sensitivity analysis on factors affecting the passenger travel mode choice-making is made by adjusting the price, speed, convenience, comfort, safety, service and punctuality factors. From the analysis we can get the conclusion that the passengers traveling in working day have a high sensitivity on the price, punctulity, service and convenience factors on the whole. The passengers traveling in weekend have a high sensitivity on the price, punctulity and service factors on the whole. The passengers traveling in holiday peak period have a high sensitivity on the price, punctulity and safety factors.