| Under the "double carbon" target,with the accelerated pace of building a new power system,the proportion of new energy represented by photovoltaic in the energy system structure is increasing,but its volatility,intermittency and randomness pose challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power grid.In order to build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system,ensure the safe,stable and efficient operation of the power system,guarantee the smooth consumption of large-scale new energy power,and help achieve "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peaking" on schedule,the source-grid-load-storage integration project came into being.The model proposes a holistic solution of "power supply,grid,load and storage",promoting precise matching of supply and demand,effectively solving the problems of clean energy consumption and the resulting grid volatility,and improving the overall efficiency of the power system.In the early stages of the large-scale national roll-out of such projects,it is important to conduct comprehensive research and analysis on the investment benefits of the projects.This study focuses on the comprehensive benefits of such light and storage projects and,on this basis,discusses the risk resistance of the projects and the problems and recommendations that are constraining the promotion and construction of the projects at this stage.Taking a centralised solar storage project in Qinghai Province as an example,this paper combines the certainty and uncertainty of the project,and makes a comprehensive evaluation of the year-by-year benefits of the project’s 25-year operating cycle and the overall investment benefits of the project through a quantitative-based and qualitative-supported research approach.Firstly,a qualitative analysis of the investment environment of the project site was conducted through the PEST model.Then,a traditional investment model based on financial indicators was established,and on this basis,carbon trading revenue was introduced into the model to internalise the external benefits of the project and establish an investment evaluation model with carbon trading revenue,and the two groups of returns were compared.Then,on the basis of the two,a comprehensive evaluation index system for project investment benefits was established by combining the three-dimensional evaluation idea of ecological and economic systems,and the entropy weighting method was applied to assign weights to three dimensions of project financial performance,technological energy efficiency and social ecology,and 11 indicators,and the Topsis method was used to make an objective and comprehensive evaluation analysis of project investment benefits.Finally,a sensitivity analysis of the project’s internal rate of return on investment was carried out to measure the project’s risk resistance.The results of the study show that:(1)the overall feasibility of the light storage project,the project’s internal and external benefits are positive;the average of the project life cycle of each year’s closeness is 0.4827,the comprehensive evaluation of project benefits is medium,of which the average closeness of ecological benefits is the best,0.7602,and the average closeness of financial benefits is 0.4461,the financial situation pulls down the overall comprehensive benefits of the project.(2)The current energy storage technology,cost and allocation policy will bring economic pressure on the project investment,because the increased energy storage revenue from centralised feed-in tariff light storage power stations cannot compensate for the increased cost input due to the allocation of energy storage,and the financial benefits of the project will be reduced overall due to the allocation of energy storage.(3)The project can pass a sensitivity analysis and has a certain degree of risk resistance,and the project’s feed-in power has a greater impact on the project’s rate of return than the project’s investment cost.Finally,the main findings are summarised and relevant recommendations are given. |
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