Value For Money Evaluation Of Highway PPP Project In Risk Cost Measurement Study

The modernization of the city has led to a continuous acceleration of transport modernization,and the motorway,as an important part of this,needs to keep pace with the times to meet the growing demand for travel.Before the introduction of the PPP model,the construction and operation of motorways were controlled by government departments.Due to the large investment,long construction cycle and complex and diverse risk factors throughout the life cycle of motorways,the construction of motorways brought serious management pressure and financial burden to government departments.Therefore,the introduction of the PPP model has effectively alleviated the difficulties faced by government departments.Quantitative evaluation is an important part of the value-for-money evaluation of a project before the PPP model is established,and can assess key elements such as project costs and benefits,thus providing a comprehensive evaluation of the project proposal and facilitating the decision on whether to adopt the PPP model.A reasonable and scientific estimation of risk cost is one of the elements of quantitative evaluation,which not only enables social capitalists to fully consider their own risk-bearing capacity,but also screens out less viable projects in the quantitative value-for-money evaluation stage,providing a basis for the decision-making stage and better escorting the development of PPP projects in China.This paper firstly compares the research results on value-for-money evaluation of PPP projects,risk identification of PPP projects and risk cost measurement at home and abroad,and through summarizing the literature,understands the scope and shortcomings of the existing research content,and clarifies the research content and focus of this paper.Secondly,the theories related to the concept and connotation of PPP,value-for-money evaluation,risk and risk cost involved in this paper are explained to lay the theoretical foundation for the subsequent research.Again,this paper follows the idea of identifying risk factors,establishing a list of key risk factors,constructing a quantitative model of risk cost and verifying it in practice.On the basis of identifying the risks commonly found in highway PPP projects by using the case study method,the paper combines information such as the PPP Project Contract Guide issued by the Ministry of Finance,the VFM evaluation report of highway PPP projects and the results of questionnaire surveys to construct a Monte Carlobased This paper presents a quantitative model of risk based on Monte Carlo simulation,which enables the measurement of the risk cost of highway PPP projects.Finally,this paper selects a highway PPP project in County D of City T of G Province to validate the model,and determines the probability of occurrence of the project risk factors and the values of the remaining elements using a combination of questionnaire survey method and set-value statistical method,and then obtains the mean and standard deviation of each measured element after simulation,summarizes the total risk impact value of the project,and compares this value with the construction and operation to obtain a specific risk cost proportion.The ratio is determined based on the scientific risk quantification process and practical verification,which strengthens the objectivity and comprehensiveness of the value to a certain extent and conforms to the scope of the risk cost ratio as stipulated by the national policy,which can provide reference and suggestion for the risk cost ratio in the quantitative evaluation of VFM and add a brick to improve the quantitative evaluation method of value for money of highway PPP projects.