Research On Simulation Prediction Of Urban And Rural Green Space Based On PLUS Mode

Under the background of land space planning,urban and rural development is coordinated,so the research scope of urban green space is expanded to urban and rural areas.Urban and rural green space is the land with natural vegetation and artificial vegetation as the main form in urban administrative area,which plays an important role in improving ecology,protecting environment,residents’ recreation,culture and education,etc.At present,the driving and simulation prediction technology of urban land use change is becoming more and more mature,and it has become an important means of urban spatial development decision-making.However,there are relatively few researches that take urban and rural green space as the research subject and conduct simulation prediction.It is of great significance for the protection and development of urban and rural green space to predict the future development trend by analyzing the change of urban and rural green space in the long period,studying the driving force of dynamic change of urban and rural green space and simulating.This thesis takes Jinan city as the research area,and first explores the spatiotemporal pattern changes of urban and rural land use in the region from 2000 to 2020.It was found that during the period from 2000 to 2020,the amount of urban and rural green space in Jinan city decreased significantly,while artificial land cover increased substantially.However,compared with the period from 2000 to 2010,the rate of urban and rural green space reduction in the period from 2010 to 2020 decreased by half,which proves that urban and rural green space has been somewhat controlled in the past decade under the ecological red line protection policy.Furthermore,based on literature research,this thesis summarizes the driving factors that affect urban and rural green space changes,and uses the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detectors(OPGD)to explore the relationship between dynamic changes in urban and rural green space and their driving forces.The study found that land use type,population density,and night light intensity were the top three driving factors that affect the dynamic changes in urban and rural green space,followed by vegetation,elevation,and temperature.This indicates that human activities have a greater impact on the dynamic changes in urban and rural green space than natural factors.Precipitation and water bodies have relatively weak explanatory power for the dynamic changes in urban and rural green space.Thirdly,the System Dynamics-Path-generating Land Use Simulation(SD-PLUS)Model was used to simulate and verify the urban and rural land use in Jinan city.The simulation accuracy of urban and rural land use in Jinan was found to be 0.95 with a Kappa coefficient of 0.92,indicating a relatively high level of simulation accuracy.The model has strong applicability in the study area and can be used for future scenario predictions of urban and rural land use.Fourth,based on the development characteristics and demands of urban-rural land use in Jinan City,three development scenarios were designed and predicted for the year2035 by setting parameters for free inertia,economic priority,and ecological protection.Under the free inertia scenario,compared to 2020,the areas of urban-rural green space,farmland,and water bodies decreased by 3.17%,3.16%,and 3.10%,respectively,while the area of artificial land increased by 20.20%,and the area of unused land increased slightly.Under the economic priority scenario,compared to 2020,the areas of urbanrural green space,farmland,and water bodies decreased by 4.52%,3.7%,and 5.64%,respectively,while the area of artificial land increased by 26.67%,and no changes occurred in the area of unused land.Under the ecological protection scenario,the area of urban-rural green space showed an overall increase of 0.13%,while farmland decreased by 2.53%.It is worth noting that the area of unused land decreased by 71.86%under the ecological protection scenario.In summary,under the economic development scenario,the largest reductions occurred in the areas of urban-rural green space and farmland,while the area of artificial land expanded the most.However,under the ecological protection scenario,urban-rural green space showed an increase,and the value of unused land was fully considered.Finally,based on the simulation results of the three development scenarios,we propose the following recommendations for the development of urban and rural green spaces in Jinan: 1.Controlling the growth of artificial land is the fundamental measure for protecting urban and rural green spaces;2.Strengthening the management of green spaces in the edge zones of artificial land to ensure ecological security;3.Promoting the rational utilization of urban and rural green space resources and advancing the integrated development of urban and rural green spaces;4.Unused land is key to resolving the conflict between development and protection,and policy research related to unused land should be given greater attention.This study used the SD-PLUS model to simulate and predict the future development of urban and rural green spaces in Jinan under different policy orientations.Through intuitive spatial comparisons and objective data support,the development potential of the ecological protection scenario was demonstrated,providing a case reference for China’s ecological civilization construction and the integrated development of urban and rural areas.