Research On Wind Field Characteristics In Xinjiang And Its Impact On Wind Energy Resources Under The Background Of Global Warmin

Under global warming,climate anomalies increase,extreme climate and natural disasters occur frequently.This continuous and large-scale climate change also has a significant impact on the power industry,including the wind power industry.Based on the ERA5 reanalysis and the 10 m wind field data of three CORDEX regional models,this paper discusses the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of wind field and wind energy resources in Xinjiang during the historical period.Multivariate deviation correction method(MBCp)based on Pearson correlation and multiple integration models(ensemble pattern output statistics(EMOS),Kalman filter and simple mode averaging)were introduced to evaluate the correction integration scheme.In the end,the optimized scheme revised and integrated the future model data to predict the wind speed and wind energy resource potential in Xinjiang in the future period under the background of climate warming,and to explore their distribution and change characteristics.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on climate tendency rate and MK non-parameter test,the spatial and temporal distribution and variation characteristics of wind field and wind energy resources in Xinjiang during the historical period are discussed.It is found that the average wind speed in Xinjiang is distributed from 0.3 to 4.5m.s-1,and the spatial distribution is high in the east and low in the west,and the large value area is located around Qiangular Well.The overall annual mean wind speed in Xinjiang showed a downward trend.In terms of seasons,the wind speed in spring and summer was high but showed a downward trend,while the wind speed in autumn and winter was low but showed an upward trend,with regional differences.At the same time,the distribution characteristics of wind direction found that the wind in most areas of Xinjiang is north,and the main wind direction is east northeast(ENE),followed by north northeast(NNE).The two-parameter Weibull distribution and Rayleigh distribution were used to fit the wind speed at the hub height,and the effective wind speed frequency and the average effective wind energy density were calculated based on the optimal distribution.It was found that the spatial distribution of the two indexes was similar.The large value area was located near the Haba River,Qijiao Jing and its northeast direction.Finally,the stability of wind energy resources was evaluated based on the coefficient of variation,and it was found that the wind speed and wind energy resources in Xinjiang were relatively stable,decreasing first and then stabilizing.(2)Multiple deviation correction and multiple integration models were introduced for program evaluation and optimization.After the correction,the deviation between the model and the observed data is reduced and the distribution is more concentrated.At the same time,the model also shows remarkable effect in the simulation of average wind speed,effective wind speed frequency and average effective wind energy density,and better simulates the spatial mode and interannual variability,that is,the spatial correlation coefficient is increased to more than 0.95.The root-mean-square errors of simulation and observation are both less than 0.5,and the standard deviation ratio of both are near 1,in which the simulation effect based directly on wind speed correction is better.After integration,the performance of the model is improved and decreased,but the overall performance is better than that of the original model.The integration effect of binary EMOS and ensemble Kalman filter is poor,while the integration effect of unary EMOS is the best.After integration,the correlation coefficient between the model field and the observation field is improved,the relative standard deviation ratio is about1,the root mean square error is close to 0,and the Kling-Gupta efficiency(KGE)value is generally high.The absolute deviation is smaller.(3)The optimal scheme was used to revise and integrate the future model data,and it was found that compared with the base period,the average wind speed,the frequency of effective wind speed and the average effective wind energy density showed a downward trend in the future,but the average wind speed increased in the early future.The large value area of each index mainly extends to the northwest and southwest direction with Qijiaojing as the center,showing a distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west.According to the difference/ratio of climate states based on the index,for the effective wind speed frequency,it shows an upward trend in most regions,but a more obvious downward trend in the western section of Tianshan Mountains and Kunlun Mountains.It can be seen that the availability of wind energy is optimistic in some regions,but negative for the whole region of Xinjiang.The change rate of average effective wind energy density is the highest,and it shows a significant downward trend in most areas.Based on the monthly variation rate,it is found that the average wind speed increases in winter and some autumn,and decreases in other months.The average monthly effective wind energy density has consistent variation characteristics.It can be seen that the wind speed and wind energy resources are still negatively affected by climate change on the whole under the RCP4.5 scenario.Using the coefficient of variation to measure the stability of wind energy resources in Xinjiang,it is found that the wind energy is relatively stable,with high volatility in spring and autumn.The variability of wind energy resources rich in Baili wind zone,Lop Nur wind zone,Dabancheng wind zone and Alashankou wind zone is great,but the fluctuation of wind energy resources generally decreases as time goes by.