Research On Layout Optimization Of Urban Fire Stations Based On Fire Risk Analysis

With the rapid development of the city,the integration of new and old buildings and the diversity of street space,urban fires remain high.Considering that the existing fire protection planning of cities in China can not keep up with the pace of urbanization,especially the layout of fire stations in most areas is not carried out based on the characteristics of urban fire and does not make full use of the geographical data of the city,the final result can not truly reflect the distribution of fire risk,resulting in poor consideration of fire protection layout and can not meet the actual needs.Therefore,based on the field investigation of the current situation of fire safety in an urban area of Luzhou City,this paper introduces relevant mathematical models to comprehensively consider the impact of time and space changes on urban fire and relevant characteristics,and puts forward the layout optimization scheme of fire stations in the city on this basis.The main work is as follows:1.based on the in-depth investigation of the current situation of fire safety in an urban area,the historical fire data from 2014 to 2018 were analyzed.Through the analysis of the time distribution of the fire by using the wavelet analysis method,it was found that the fire frequency has four main periods of 6,13,24 and 31 months in the whole time domain,especially the oscillation energy with the main period of 31 months is the strongest;Then the autoregressive moving average model is used to model the fire frequency.Through comparison,ARIMA(0,0,1)model is selected for modeling.2.the random forest algorithm is used to build a fire prediction model in an urban area.Through the analysis of the importance of fire influencing factors,the results show that the spatial distribution of urban villages,educational places and old residential areas are the most important fire characteristic factors in the fire prediction modeling,which is mutually confirmed with the previous research.3.the distribution map of fire risk points is established through the distribution of fire spatial nuclear density and the distribution of fire consequence variable nuclear density.Considering the corresponding conditions of fire risk level and fire response time,the location and responsibility area of urban fire stations are divided by using the positioning rationing model,and the corresponding adjustments are made according to the actual situation.After optimization,13 class I ordinary fire stations and 47 class II ordinary fire stations are determined to be added in the study area;Evaluation of the optimization results shows that the coverage ratio of the optimized fire station layout scheme is increased by 32.29%,the average response time is shortened from 7.94 min to 3.47 min,and the average area of the responsibility area is reduced from 44.9km2 to 9.96km2,which improves the rescue capacity of the fire station as a whole,and improves the uneven distribution and insufficient quantity.