Demand Forecast Of Shared Bicycle Connection At Urban Rail Transit Stations

As an effective tool to solve the "last mile" of urban rail transit travel,bike sharing enterprises do not effectively grasp the demand of rail transit stations,which leads to the situation that there are no cars available or piled up at urban rail transit stations.This paper is to promote bike sharing to better connect urban rail transit and consolidate the advantages of urban rail transit.First of all,through reading the literature,this paper expounds the development process of bike sharing,and then introduces the service mode of bike sharing,including the operation management mode and service process of bike sharing.Through reading the literature,this paper expounds the development process of bike sharing,and then introduces the service mode of bike sharing,including the operation management mode and service process of bike sharing.Make clear the concept of urban rail transit.This paper introduces the connection system of urban rail transit,and analyzes the connection mode and layout characteristics of each connection mode and urban rail transit station.This paper lists the influence of urban rail transit travelers on the choice of connection mode.The riding characteristics of bike sharing users are discussed from individual characteristics and travel characteristics.The RP survey method is determined as the basis for formulating the investigation scheme for the selection of urban rail transit station connection mode.The questionnaire was designed to collect the basic personal information,travel information and the use of bike sharing.According to the investigation scheme,the field investigation of Shenyang subway station is carried out;after the data are screened,the traveler data is statistically analyzed.According to the difference between the Origin and Destination,the models are constructed respectively.Firstly,the nested logit(NL)model for the choice of urban rail transit station connection mode is constructed at the origin.The parameters of the model were calibrated and the model was validated.According to the results of regression analysis,the selection characteristics of each connection mode were analyzed.After that,a multi logit model for the choice of urban rail transit station connection mode is constructed at the destination.The calibration of parameters and validation of the model are also carried out,and the traveler’s choice characteristics of the connection modes at the destination are analyzed,as well as the choice proportion of each connection mode is predicted.Finally,based on the time probability model,the passenger flow of urban rail transit station in a short time is predicted.Combined with the demand proportion of bike sharing connection at the destination,the passenger flow of bike sharing connection mode is obtained.Under this condition,this paper analyzes the functional relationship between the passenger flow and the demand of bike sharing,constructs the demand model of bike sharing based on queuing theory,and forecasts the demand quantity of bike sharing through the case analysis of entrance a of Shenyang Olympic sports center subway station.In the end,the paper puts forward some suggestions on the convergence optimization of bike sharing.This paper provides a reference for understanding the demand of bicycles at rail transit stations.I hope it can help city planners and bike sharing operators.So that the travelers who choose bike sharing for rail transit connection can "have a car available",and the bike sharing convenient for residents can "have a place to return".