| Since the 20th century,many public health emergencies such as smallpox,SARS,H1N1 influenza,etc.have occurred frequently,and the scale and scope of the impact have also increased,especially the outbreak of Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19),which has brought great impact on human life and health as well as global economic development.Its suddenness,complexity and arduousness are unprecedented.In the short term,the demand for emergency materials in many countries and regions is growing rapidly.Therefore,how to improve the effective utilization rate of rescue funds,allocate limited emergency materials to various demand points,and alleviate the temporary shortage of rescue materials is an urgent problem to be solved in emergency rescue.This paper firstly establishes an optimization model of emergency material allocation with the goal of minimizing the expected shortage,explores the influence of factors such as reserved cost,capital budget,demand changes,and the number of disaster areas,and gives the optimal allocation of emergency materials under different circumstances,and proves the effectiveness of the centralized reserve and unified distribution strategy.The study shows that:(1)without considering the reserved materials(for emergency deployment),the optimal allocation strategy is to ensure the same level of inventory service in each region,regardless of the uncertainty of demand;(2)Considering the reserved materials,providing higher service levels to affected areas with large demand fluctuation can reduce expected shortages.In addition,if there are multiple disaster areas,providing the same inventory service level for each disaster area will be more equitable,even if it will lead to suboptimal material coverage;(3)Whether decision makers consider reserving emergency materials depends on the unit cost,budget and the demand of disaster areas.Then,this paper combines the emergency material allocation model with the SEIRD infectious disease model to construct a multi-stage dynamic distribution model of emergency materials.The emergency materials are divided into medical materials and protective materials,and the demand for the two kinds of materials is analyzed by the number of susceptible people and infected people respectively.On this basis,the coupling relationship between the supply of emergency materials and the evolution of the epidemic situation is further considered,that is,the change in demand for materials caused by the spread of infectious diseases and the impact of material allocation on the spread of the epidemic are further considered.And an improved SEIRD model is designed to predict the demand for emergency materials in various regions,then,decision makers allocate limited materials to different areas according to demand.Finally,an example test is carried out against the background of the COVID-19 epidemic,and the results show that the proposed model can provide theoretical reference and decision support for emergency material management under major infectious disease epidemics.In summary,this paper mainly studies the following problems:(1)emergency material allocation decision-making with the goal of minimizing shortage;(2)based on COVID-19 epidemic situation,it combines with the demand prediction of infectious disease model.The differences from existing studies are:(1)the importance and particularity of emergency material reservation are analyzed,and the effectiveness of centralized reserve and unified allocation strategy is proved;(2)Combining the infectious disease model with the allocation model,and considering the coupling relationship between the supply of materials and the evolution of the epidemic,the effect of emergency medical materials and protective materials on the decline of the peak value of the infection curve is analyzed. |
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