| With the development of the market,the drawbacks brought by the IPO approval system are increasingly exposed.The lengthy issuance cycle and distorted IPO pricing mechanism not only violate the original intention of enterprises’ listing and financing,but also encourage investors to speculate on the IPO to obtain risk-free income arbitrage.In July 2019,the reform of the registration system of the Science and Technology Innovation Board was shot for the first time.In August 2020,the registration system was piloted in gem and achieved good results.In September 2021,THE Beijing Stock Exchange was launched under the pure registration system,and the balance mechanism of inquiry game,market-based price discovery mechanism and information disclosure mechanism were strengthened and improved.The market-oriented pricing mechanism under the registration system has broken the requirement of 23 times hidden p/E ratio,the first and second levels of arbitrage has largely disappeared,the IPO may break on the first day of listing,and the original inherent "brainless" subscription mode has come to an end.This paper compares the online and offline earnings of the GEM and THE Beijing Stock Exchange under the registration system,and concludes that the comprehensive earnings of the Beijing Stock Exchange is better than that of the GEM,and the risk of the IPO of the Beijing Stock Exchange is also higher.In order to reduce the risk of new break,this paper has done the following research:Firstly,from the perspective of investors,this paper selects four indexes from the prospectus: the issue price,the quantity to be issued,the price/earnings ratio and the share capital,and analyzes the correlation between the above indexes and the rise and fall on the first day of IPO by taking THE stocks of Beijing Stock Exchange as samples on the basis of controlling industry variables.Secondly,the variables and industry factors that are significantly correlated and have passed the robustness test are quantitatively analyzed,and the indexes that are significantly correlated with the first-day rise and fall in the corresponding interval are obtained through heterogeneity analysis and grouping regression by dividing variable intervals.Third,compared the IPO on the first day,the third day,the fifth day of selling returns.After the above analysis,the following new shares subscription strategy:First,when selecting new shares,BSE will give priority to the new shares that are lower than the average issue price(refer to 11.18 yuan/share)for subscription.Second,in the NEW shares in the BSE,for the new shares in the(low)issue price group(2.98-7 yuan/share),the priority is to select the high price-to-book ratio for subscription;For new shares in the(middle)issue price group(7.03-10.18 yuan/share),priority shall be given to those with low number of issues and low price/earnings ratio for subscription;In the(high)issue price group(10.88-44.47 yuan/share)of new shares,priority to select high price-to-book ratio for subscription.Third,in the NEW shares of BSE,for the new shares that are lower than the average price-to-book ratio of 4.46,the lower the issuing price and the number of shares to be issued are preferentially selected for subscription.Fourthly,for the new shares in the information technology,medical care and communication service industries,the lower the p/E ratio is,the higher the price-to-book ratio is,the preference is to apply for the new shares.And for the new shares belonging to industry,public utilities,raw materials,daily consumer goods,non-daily consumer goods industry,priority to choose the lower the stock price and price earnings ratio for subscription.Fifth,for investors,selling stocks on the first day is not the best choice,hold a period of time to sell on the fifth day may get a higher yield. |
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