Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes On China’s Ship Exports

In recent years,the international shipping market fluctuations accompanied by the continued downturn in the Chinese ship market,the overall domestic shipyard excess capacity.Ship are an important support of the international trade and a force to be reckoned with in the maritime and industrial economy.China is a large shipbuilding country but not a strong country,with a weak foundation,poor profitability and mainly imported core equipment.With China’s accession to the RCEP and application to join the CPTPP,the globalization of trade has become deeper and the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the shipbuilding industry has become more comprehensive.The paper starts with a review of scholars’ research on the impact of exchange rate changes on international trade and the relationship between shipping industry development and import and export trade,followed by an introduction to the basic theories of exchange rates and international trade,on the basis of which the mechanism of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China’s ship exports is studied,and finally an empirical analysis of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China’s ship exports is conducted using an econometric model.In the empirical aspect,VAR model is adopted in this paper,and the variables selected include RMB real effective exchange rate,BDI index,China’s ship completion volume,China’s import volume,China’s export volume and China’s steel price.The conclusions are as follows.(1)In the short term:1-2 period RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate appreciation short-term on China’s ship export volume have a positive impact,BDI index on ship export orders short-term impact is also obvious positive response.(2)From a long-term perspective:The appreciation of the RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate is not conducive to Chinese ship exports,but the direct impact is not significant and is mainly reflected in the indirect impact.the BDI index has been positive response to the impact of Chinese ship exports and has Granger causality.That is,the BDI index trend has a certain predictive role for China’s ship exports.In the medium and long term,if the BDI index is a growth trend,it will be conducive to the growth of China’s ship exports,In the long run,it is the supply and demand of the global shipping capacity that determines the export of Chinese ships or the stock shipping ability of the international market.Finally,considering that ship export orders are the main component of the order business of Chinese shipping enterprises,Analyse exchange rate risks and the strategies of shipping enterprises to cope with exchange rate changes,and encourage ship building company to use financial derivatives and financial tools to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and improve the profitability of enterprises.