Research On The Influence Of Rmb Exchange Rate Misalignment On The Import And Export Trade Of China’s Automobile Industry

With the opening of capital market and deepening of the reform of exchange rate marketization,the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is becoming increasingly strong.In recent years,trade frictions between China and US,novel coronavirus pneumonia and other factors have affected the RMB exchange rate,breaking the “7” and returning to the “6” era.The automobile industry is an important pillar industry in China’s national economy,having the remarkable characteristics of high industrial relevance,great market potential and strong funds accumulation ability.The development of its import and export trade plays an important role in promoting China’s international trade and national economy.As an important price index of international trade,exchange rate has an important impact on the import and export trade of automobile industry.Therefore,studying the degree of RMB exchange rate misalignment and its impact on the import and export trade of China’s automobile industry,for achieving the important strategic objectives of “keep the financial sector stable” and “keep foreign trade stable” and accelerating the establishment of a “dual circulation” development pattern and giving full play to the import and export trade of automobile industry and promote the development of national economy,is of practical significance.Based on the exchange rate transmission theory,international trade balance theory,etc.,this paper analyzes and the influence path of RMB exchange rate misalignment on China’s automobile industry import and export trade from the theoretical level;it analyzes the current situation of RMB exchange rate and China’s automobile industry import and export trade combined with relevant data;measures the RMB real effective equilibrium exchange rate and the degree of exchange rate misalignment,using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate(BEER)model;analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on China’s automobile industry import and export trade from the empirical level by using the vector autoregressive(VAR)model;puts forward some corresponding suggestions according to the research conclusions.This paper consists of six parts: the first part describes the research setting and significance,sorts out the relevant literature on the impact of exchange rate misalignment on import and export trade,and expounds the main content and methods;the second part defines the connotation of the real effective exchange rate,exchange rate misalignment,etc.,analyzes the three paths of RMB exchange rate misalignment affecting the import and export trade of China’s automobile industry based on the relevant theories;the third part summarizes the trend and characteristics of RMB exchange rate,the evolution process of RMB exchange rate system reform,and the status quo of China’s import and export trade of automobile and auto parts;the fourth part measures the RMB equilibrium exchange rate and the degree of exchange rate misalignment by constructing the BEER model between RMB real effective exchange rate and various influencing factors;the fifth part empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on the import and export trade of China’s automobile industry by constructing the VAR model between RMB exchange rate misalignment and China’s automobile industry import and export trade;the sixth part puts forward some corresponding suggestions from two levels of government and enterprises.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The real effective exchange rate of RMB is affected by many factors,and has a certain degree of automatic stability mechanism.(2)Government expenditure,terms of trade and relative productivity differences have a greater impact on the real effective exchange rate of RMB.(3)Since the exchange rate reform in 2005,the degree of RMB exchange rate misalignment is relatively small,and basically remains within 8%.(4)The impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on the import and export trade of China’s automobile industry is negative.(5)The RMB exchange rate misalignment has a lag effect on the import trade of China’s automobile industry.(6)The impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on the export trade of China’s automobile industry is greater than that on the import trade.Based on the above research,this paper proposes the following suggestions: deepen the market-oriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate,optimize the government’s public expenditure structure;enterprises set up exchange rate risk management and control departments,optimize the import and export trade structure,strengthen the construction of "overseas warehouse",etc.