Spot Market Considering Grouped Equilibrium Prediction Bias Model Research

With the continuous deepening of electricity market reform and the continuous improvement of new energy installed capacity,when new energy represented by wind/photovoltaic participate in the spot market on a large scale,The power forecast deviation between the real-time forecast information submitted in the real-time market and the day ahead forecast information submitted in the day ahead market will lead to the passive large power adjustment of the sub unit in the system in the real-time market clearing,thus facing the problem of loss of revenue and affecting the market revenue of its power generation group;In addition,the real-time optimization goal of minimizing the user’s electricity purchase cost cannot maximize the savings in power generation costs.Therefore,under the current spot market mechanism,a high proportion of new energy will affect the real-time clearance results of thermal power units,thereby affecting the market returns of their affiliated power generation groups,making it difficult to mobilize the enthusiasm of power generation groups to participate in the spot market.To ensure the reasonable profits of various power generation groups under a high proportion of new energy,it is necessary to clarify the responsibility for deviation in new energy forecasting and the distribution of profits for power generation groups,and explore a spot market model that takes into account the differences in the interests of power generation groups,in order to achieve further development of the power market.This paper first describes the classification and characteristics of power system dispatch modes,and then analyses the income sources and related policies of thermal power units and new energy stations in power generation groups under the two modes.Secondly,by referring to the similarities of clearing modes in domestic and foreign spot markets,a clearing and settlement mechanism with strong universality is designed.Based on the above analysis,the spot market model considering the differences of the stakeholders of power generation group is proposed.Among them,the first stage follows the current pre-day market clearing mechanism to form a pre-day power generation plan with the objective of minimizing the user’s purchase cost.In the second stage,Group balanced dispatch is used instead of real-time market clearing mechanism.On the basis of the previous generation plan,the new energy forecast deviation is balanced through intra-group priority adjustment and inter-group assistant adjustment,and the optimal dispatch is made with the lowest operating cost of coal consumption within each group.Finally,an example of IEEE30 node system with improved parameters is validated.The results show that the proposed model guarantees the interests of power generation groups and effectively reduces the cost of power generation on the basis of meeting the balance of supply and demand and new energy consumption.