The Calculation Of Travel Trajectories Of Urban Rail Transit Passengers Based On Joint Distribution

The scale of the urban rail transit network is gradually expanding,and the demand for passenger flow has increased rapidly,and the refined operation of the network is facing great difficulties.The traditional methods of passenger route choice,passenger flow assignment and passenger flow analysis cannot be integrated with the urban rail transit organization,and cannot accurately restore the travel trajectories of passengers.In turn,it affects the analysis of the distribution characteristics of the passenger flow of the line network,resulting in the failure of the urban rail transit organization to fully meet the travel needs of passengers.Therefore,it’s necessary to study the travel trajectories of individual passengers from a microscopic perspective in order to obtain more accurate passenger flow distribution data during network hours,and provide data support for refined transportation organization and long-term guidance of urban rail transit operation practice.Therefore,based on the analysis of passenger travel time distribution characteristics,this paper proposes a joint distribution-based passenger travel trajectory estimation method.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Combined with the train operation map data,the AFC data was deeply excavated,and the algorithm was designed to calculate the hidden entry and exit time and transfer time of passengers,and the Python software was used to fit the distribution curve to provide quantitative indicators for the matching of time-space travel paths.(2)Based on the road network data,the graph theory method is used to construct the physical topology network of urban rail transit,and the effective path search algorithm is improved.Based on this,combined with the AFC and train operation map data,this paper construct a corresponding spatiotemporal network,and design an algorithm,which calculates the passenger’s spatiotemporal travel path from the terminal station for searching the all feasible travel plans of the passenger.(3)On the basis of(1)and(2),for the situation that each spatiotemporal travel path has corresponding entry and exit time and transfer time and obeys the overall distribution of their respective times,this paper proposes a method,which uses these three’s joint probability to measure the degree of matching with the actual travel path,and then restore the travel trajectory of passengers.(4)Taking the Chengdu subway network in 2020 as an example,analyze the travel time characteristics of passengers on the line network at a certain time on a certain day,search and match the spatiotemporal travel path of passengers,and realize the deduction of passenger travel trajectories.