Research On Emergency Evacuation And Dynamic Route Choice Based On Rational Inattention

In today’s information age,there is no doubt that information has an impact on people’s decision-making.The characteristic of incomplete rationality of decision makers is gradually being discussed and studied by more and more scholars.This paper uses the rational inattention theory from economics to study traffic management measures under emergency evacuation and dynamic traffic assignment.This theory not only relaxes the assumption of completely rational person,but also incorporates information as an important influencing factor into the mathematical model.Firstly,with the randomness of evacuation network traffic state and the limited capacity of traveler information processing,this paper internalizes the cost of traffic state information and develops a bi-level evacuation network optimization model based on rational inattention theory.The upper model minimizes the total evacuation time of the system,with the decision variable being whether a link is unidirectional.The lower model is the user equilibrium model for rational inattention travelers.Design a heuristic hybrid algorithm combining discrete particle swarm optimization(DPSO)algorithm and the method of successive averages(MSA).The upper model is solved using the particle swarm optimization algorithm.And the resulting one-way strategy is passed down to the lower model,which is solved using the MSA algorithm.It is found that the optimal one-way strategy outperforms both the non-one-way strategy and the whole one-way strategy.The designed algorithm can quickly identify the key links of the evacuation network.For the whole evacuation system,more information obtained by the traveler may not lead to better performance.Secondly,due to the fact that the information processing capabilities of travelers in the evacuation system are not always consistent,a bi-level optimization model for evacuation networks with heterogeneous rational inattention travelers is established based on the different unit information costs.A heuristic hybrid algorithm combining method of successive weighted averages(MSWA)and DPSO algorithm is designed.Research shows that when heterogeneous travelers appear in the system,their respective proportions have a significant impact on the evacuation system.The optimal evacuation strategy can compensate for the loss of evacuation efficiency caused by the difference in unit information cost to a certain extent.Finally,this paper further explores the combination of rational inattention theory and dynamic traffic assignment,defines the dynamic user equilibrium state,and provides a travel time formula under rational inattention using the bottleneck queuing model.Using the maximum outflow rate of a link as an indicator of the state,a rational inattention dynamic path choice model and a variational inequality model are articulated and the equivalence between the two and the existence of model solutions are proved.In the solution algorithm part,the self-regulated averaging method(SRAM)and the method of successive averages with constant step sizes(MSA-CSS)are designed,and their convergence performance is compared in a numerical example.The sensitivity analysis of unit information cost shows that travelers with different unit information costs have significant differences in the spatiotemporal distribution of traffic flow,and the model can reflect the flow distribution of travelers when they change from "complete information" to "complete no information".In short,for unconventional transportation activities such as emergency evacuation,in order to minimize personal and social costs,the role played by transportation systems cannot be ignored.This requires evacuation managers to be able to formulate evacuation strategies reasonably and effectively,and to do a good job in road control.This study can provide reasonable and scientific evacuation guidance for them.In addition,the combination of rational inattention theory and dynamic path choice enriches the basic theory of dynamic traffic assignment,clarifies the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of traffic flow under incomplete information,and helps deepen people’s understanding of traffic congestion issues.