A Research On Asset Securitization Pricing Of Expressway PPP Project

The government will face problems of large project scale and insufficient funding during the process of public project construction,and the PPP model is an important way to alleviate such problems.However,projects that generally adopt the PPP model involve large-scale funding and have a long investment cycle,and the willingness of social capital to participate in PPP is not high.For highway construction projects,social capital requires a long period of time to recover investment costs,which is an important obstacle to the development of the PPP model.Asset securitization is an important means to promote the development of the PPP model,and how to price it is the foundation for the smooth implementation of subsequent asset securitization.This thesis studies the asset securitization pricing of highway PPP projects.Firstly,analyze the characteristics of PPP projects on highways in China.Secondly,based on the term difference pricing method and the characteristics of highway PPP projects,a highway PPP project asset securities pricing model is constructed.Among them,the traffic flow prediction adopts a BP neural network model and simulates the interest rate path.Fourthly,taking the Yunnan Expressway X project as a specific example,a detailed analysis of the pricing process of the project is conducted,and compared with different methods to verify the effectiveness of the pricing model constructed in this thesis.Calculate the net cash flow distribution based on the fees charged for the project,and calculate the interest rate volatility using the CIR model;Based on the distribution of interest rate values at 128 interest rate path nodes from 2018 to 2024,the discount values of each node are calculated based on the cash flow status of Project X each year.Based on the discount values of each node,the average value is calculated to determine the asset securitization pricing of the project,and different pricing methods are used for comparison.Research has shown that the revised model in this thesis is more consistent with the actual situation and has higher accuracy.Compared with the asset securitization projects operating in the actual market,it is more in line with the real situation of the market.Therefore,the pricing model constructed in this thesis is closer to the real situation of highway PPP projects and has better results.The research in this thesis helps to further improve the pricing of asset securitization for highway PPP projects and promote the development of asset securitization for highway PPP projects in China.