| With China’s "double carbon" strategic goal,how to further reduce carbon emissions has become a hot topic.Based on this,China has strongly supported the development of new energy vehicles in recent years,hoping to promote the development of new energy industry,balance economic development and environmental protection,and further improve the strength of China’s automobile industry.With the rapid expansion of the market scale of new energy vehicles and the rapid iteration of electronic systems and energy storage systems,the lithium battery industry has good development prospects,so it is of great significance to accurately evaluate the value of lithium battery enterprises.However,at present,the value evaluation of the industry is mostly based on the in-depth study of one method or the parallel analysis of several methods,which does not take into account the characteristics of lithium battery enterprises and has certain limitations.Therefore,based on the characteristics of lithium batteries,this thesis attempts to find a more suitable evaluation method for the value of lithium battery enterprises.The primary research contents of this thesis are: first,introduce the industry characteristics of lithium battery enterprises,explain the limitations of traditional enterprise value evaluation methods in evaluating lithium battery enterprises,and come to the conclusion that the B-S model(Black-Scholes option pricing model)using EVA(economic value added)method to evaluate the existing value of enterprises and real option method to evaluate the potential value of enterprises is a more reasonable valuation method for lithium battery enterprises.Secondly,according to the characteristics of lithium battery industry,the parameters of two valuation models are adjusted and improved,among which EVA model adjusts related accounting items,while B-S model is improved from two aspects.One of the improvements is to consider the impact of the dividend payout rate q on the option value because the traditional B-S model assumes that dividends are not distributed;The second is to improve the volatility,which is the change range of the asset value of the index and reflects the risk level of the underlying assets.This thesis uses the historical data of enterprises to fit the probability distribution of related variables,and then uses Monte Carlo to conduct 100000 random simulations to obtain the accurate volatility of enterprises.Thirdly,by selecting Yiwei lithium energy,an enterprise that is at the forefront of the lithium battery industry,for case analysis,EVA model is used to evaluate its existing value and improved B-S model is employed to assess its potential value.Fourthly,the evaluation results are analyzed,and the conclusion that the combination model is reasonable and feasible is drawn.The primary conclusions drawn from this thesis are: first,the use of B-S model embedded in EVA method makes the determined and uncertain value of enterprises considered,and can better evaluate the existing and potential value of enterprises.Secondly,through the sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the improved B-S model,it is found that the two influencing factors of dividend payment and volatility are closely related to the value of enterprises,in which the size of volatility is related to the rationality of enterprise value evaluation,so the determination of volatility is very important.Thirdly,for the evaluation of lithium battery enterprises,the use of portfolio model includes multiple value information of enterprises,and the credibility of enterprise value is better than that of a single evaluation model,which provides a new idea for the value evaluation of lithium battery enterprises. |
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