| In recent years,as strong enemies and their allies continue to provoke disputes along China’s coast,the situation of China’s coastal defense and security has deteriorated sharply,and the possibility of a maritime fleet conflict has increased sharply.As the core of the fleet’s combat strength,large warships are the main platforms on which maritime forces rely for survival and operations,and they are also the key targets of anti.warship weapon systems on both sides of the enemy.With the continuous progress of science and technology,various countries,including China,have successively launched a variety of cutting.edge anti.warship weapon systems,and how to quickly and accurately calculate the damage effect of enemy’s and our warships under the blows of these high.tech weapons has become a key issue guiding the construction of our military’s equipment system and the formulation of strategies and tactics.At present,warships have excellent anti.sinking ability and complete damage management facilities,and it is very difficult to completely physically destroy a large warship.On the other hand,as a complex system target,large warships have extensive and complex dependency transfer relationships between their component functions.After a blow,the loss of the function of some components often causes the function of other components to decline,and when enough core components are destroyed,the warship will also lose its combat function,which can be judged to be destroyed in the functional sense.In general,the loss of warship function is more likely to be reached than the failure of the structure.Therefore,it is of great significance to accurately and quickly assess the functional damage status of large warships to improve the efficiency of firepower use.In view of the assessment of functional damage to large warships,this paper conducts the following research in seven chapters:This part analyzes the background and significance of warship damage assessment research;The general process of target damage assessment is given;The research status of target damage assessment is reviewed from three aspects: the research on damage assessment method,the assessment of warhead power and target vulnerability,and the research on damage assessment criteria and criteria.The main contents and research methods of warship functional damage assessment research were clarified.Aiming at the problem of non.measurable warship functions,a general functional damage calculation model for complex weapon systems is constructed by drawing on the reduced.order analysis method and explanatory structure model in system science.Furthermore,through the analysis of the functional system of large warships,the functional system of large warships is decomposed into three modules:structure.energy.task with different functional destruction modes,and the calculation formula from the functional residual state of the module to the total functional residual state of the warship is given.In view of the current situation that functional damage assessment mainly relies on expert knowledge and there is great uncertainty,a method for expressing component functional damage state based on the two.layer hesitant UNCERT language terminology set is developed,which uses natural language as the membership degree function,which better solves the problem of distortion of evaluation results caused by the deviation of member warship function definition.Aiming at the problem that the current component weight determination method is greatly affected by the subjective consciousness of experts,a component weighting method based on UNCERT measurement is proposed,which allows experts to give system components weights with information complementarity or information redundancy,which is closer to the real situation of functional behavior between system components.Aiming at the problem of nonlinear dependence of system functions on component functions,based on the idea of component function damage state migration mode analysis and damage state space equal potential division concept,a component damage state fusion algorithm with adjustment coefficient is developed.By adjusting the size of the coefficients,the algorithm can reflect the dependence of different types of system functions on the functions of subordinate components.The ship damage probability is reasoned by the Bayesian network model based on D-S evidence theory.To address the difficulty in calculating the probability of component damage,a damage probability field function model based on fast Fourier convolution is proposed.This model can reduce the calculation time of component damage probability from the minute level of the Monte Carlo method to the second level,or even the millisecond level.Aiming at the problem of obtaining the destructive effect of the explosion in the compartment of a typical anti.warship missile warhead on the hull,a finite element model of a typical key compartment and adjacent compartment is established.The destructive effect of the anti.warship missile warhead on the hit compartment and its adjacent compartment was studied by finite element simulation method.It is found that the damage effect of the cabin is strongly affected by the size of the cabin,and the ammunition can generally only cause damage to the second cabin,and there is no obvious damage effect on the farther cabin.In order to verify the feasibility and rationality of the above set of methods and processes,the problem of predicting the functional damage effect of typical destroyers of strong enemies under different strike schemes is taken as the research object.By analyzing the target characteristics and functional vulnerability of modern large destroyers,a structural model for explaining the functional damage of a certain type of destroyer of a strong enemy was established.Furthermore,by calculating the damage probability field of anti.warship missile implosion on hull components,the damage situation of strong enemy destroyers under different strike schemes is analyzed,and the remaining functional state of the target warship after damage is predicted.Combined with the calculation results of warship damage probability,the target damage under different strike schemes was comprehensively determined.This study fully verifies the feasibility and rationality of the proposed method. |
