Simulation And Research On Ground Combat Attrition Prediction

With the rapid development of information technology,the firepower and accuracy of weapons and equipment have been greatly enhanced,and various new types of intelligent equipment have emerged,which makes modern warfare combat attrition present many new features.Therefore,accurate prediction of the evolution of combat attrition trends can help guide future war command decisions and security planning.In this paper,the prediction model of combat attrition is studied from both macro and micro dimensions,and the prediction model is scientifically and effectively verified by combining historical data and simulation experiments.The work completed in this dissertation is as follows:(1)From a macro point of view,the traditional Lanchester equation is improved,and many factors affecting downsizing are introduced,a Lanchester combat model based on multidimensional factors is constructed.Aiming at the difficulties in numerical calculation,a system dynamics model is introduced,and a combat confrontation model based on system dynamics is constructed.It is verified by example that the improved Lanchester model is more compatible with the criteria of modern warfare than the traditional model.Finally,using the Gulf War as data,it is verified that the model can be used for attrition prediction in modern warfare.(2)In this paper,we focus on the impact of UAV combat effectiveness on attrition in the analysis of weapon and equipment impact factors,which has positive implications for attrition prediction in modern warfare.Taking UAS as the research object,the ADC effectiveness assessment model is improved,the UAV combat effectiveness index system is constructed,elements such as offensive and defensive confrontation environment and personnel factors are taken into account,and the fuzzy hierarchical analysis method is used to establish the UAV combat capability calculation model;the improved ADC method is verified to be more consistent with the actual situation on the battlefield than the classical ADC method through arithmetic analysis.Finally,the UAV combat effectiveness is introduced into the improved Lanchester combat model,and the effectiveness of the model is verified by using the Naka conflict as a typical case of UAV employment.(3)In view of the limitations of macro-mathematical models,this paper further investigates the battlefield attrition prediction problem based on digital twin technology.An agent modeling method is used to construct a ground combat simulation model based on multiple intelligences;a framework of ground combat data processing system based on digital twin is established,and a dynamic update strategy of parameters based on Bayesian update and Newton interpolation is proposed to realize dynamic correction of the simulation model;finally,the rationality of the model framework is verified through simulation experiments.