Research On The Potential Of Alternative Development Of Fuel Cell Trucks In Freeway Scenarios

With the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutral," green and low-carbon has become the inevitable trend of highway freight development,and it is urgent to find a clean and nonpolluting new energy vehicle to replace the traditional fuel trucks.Fuel cell vehicles are considered the most promising new energy-clean power vehicles in the 21 st century and are one of the possible alternatives.However,since fuel cell vehicles are at the early stage of development,it is unknown whether they have alternative development potential in freeway freight transportation and how much development potential they have.Therefore,a study on the alternative development potential of fuel cell trucks in freeway freight transportation scenarios will help promote and apply fuel cell trucks.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation of highway truck transportation in China and the current situation of the fuel cell vehicle industry and puts forward the alternative development potential of highway fuel cell trucks.Secondly,the technical index competitiveness,economic competitiveness,energy supply competitiveness,and driving policy competitiveness of fuel cell trucks are discussed quantitatively and qualitatively,and whether they have alternative development potential in highway freight transportation is analyzed.Then a multivariate gray prediction model PSO-OGM(1,N)based on gray correlation analysis,principal component analysis,and particle swarm optimization algorithm was developed to forecast freeway truck traffic volume.A fuel cell truck alternative development scale prediction model based on scenario analysis and quantitative Delphi method was developed based on traffic volume prediction.Finally,the prediction model was used to forecast the alternative development scale of fuel cell trucks in the Chengdu-Chongqing hydrogen corridor in 2025 by scenarios,and development suggestions were put forward.The research results show that fuel cell trucks are competitive in four aspects: technical index,economy,energy supply,and driving policy,especially in highway heavy-duty and medium and long-distance cargo transportation with more significant development potential.The PSO-OGM(1,N)truck traffic prediction model’s simulation error and prediction errors are0.697% and 1.145%,respectively.The accuracy of this prediction model is high.The forecast results show that the forecast value of truck traffic volume in 2025 in the Chengdu-Chongqing hydrogen corridor is 41,696,100 vehicles,3,221,100 more than in 2021.Furthermore,the alternative development scale of the number of vehicles for fuel cell trucks in the pessimistic,conventional,and optimistic scenarios are 540,1,227,and 2,114 vehicles,respectively.Currently,the plan is to put in 1,000 fuel cell trucks in 2025,which does not meet the projected demand of the conventional scenario.It is necessary to increase the number of fuel cell trucks to give full play to the alternative development potential of fuel cell trucks in the ChengduChongqing hydrogen corridor.The Chengdu-Chongqing hydrogen corridor can achieve a better demonstration application effect.