| In order to solve the problems of environmental pollution and energy exhaustion in China and comply with the concept of green sustainable development,China has vigorously developed the new energy vehicle industry.New energy automobile enterprises have the characteristics of capital-intensive,technology-intensive and over-dependence on government subsidies,and their financial risks are higher than those of traditional automobile enterprises.Building a scientific financial risk early warning model to evaluate the financial risks of enterprises and issue early warning is an important means to prevent financial risks,and can also guide the healthy development of new energy automobile enterprises.Based on the characteristics of new energy automobile enterprises,this thesis constructed a financial risk early warning model based on entropy method,order relationship analysis method and efficiency coefficient method,and selected the financial data of 42 new energy automobile enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market from 2017 to 2021 for research.The primary indicators were screened by entropy method and correlation analysis,the indicators were weighted by entropy method and order relationship analysis,and the early warning value of the financial indicators of each company was calculated by efficiency coefficient method.The early warning value of the non-financial indicators was calculated by quantifying the non-financial indicators.Finally,the warning range and financial risk of different enterprises were determined according to the comprehensive early warning value,The reliability of the model was tested based on the comprehensive early warning value of ST company.The research shows that the average comprehensive early warning value of 42 new energy automobile enterprises in 2017-2021 is 0.52,which indicates that the overall financial risk is in the middle warning range.The financial risk in the past five years shows a trend of first rising and then falling,and the financial risk in 2018 is the largest.There are 8,10,23,and 1 enterprises in the major,heavy,medium,and minor police positions,respectively.Great Wall Motors in the minor police and ST Zhongtai in the major police are selected for analysis.It is found that the turnover rate of accounts receivable of Great Wall Motors,the quick ratio,the surplus cash guarantee ratio and the total asset growth rate are higher than the industry average;ST Zhongtai’s profit risk,operational risk,and debt repayment risk are far higher than the industry average.The model reliability test results show that the risk level of ST companies is generally higher than that of non-ST companies,indicating that the financial risk early warning model of new energy automobile enterprises based on the efficiency coefficient method is highly reliable.The innovation of this thesis is reflected in: firstly,there is currently little research on financial risk warning in China that involves the new energy vehicle industry.This thesis constructs a financial risk warning model based on the characteristics of new energy vehicle enterprises.Secondly,the existing research on financial risk warning indicators mainly focuses on financial indicators,and adding non-financial indicators that conform to the characteristics of the new energy vehicle industry can improve the scientific nature of financial risk warning models. |
