The Research On The Evolution And Driving Mechanism Of The Spatial Structure Of Cultivated Land In China

From the agricultural age of ancient times to the modern economic explosion,land is the driving force to promote the development of human society.Since 1990 s,human civilization has changed from the former agricultural development to the pillar to the industrial revolution as the driving force.The increasing spiritual and cultural demand of people makes more agricultural cultivated land resources turn to other non-agricultural land types such as urban land.The phenomenon of continuous encroachment of construction land on cultivated land resources is increasingly prominent.The uncontrolled expansion of non-agricultural also makes the contradiction between people and land increasingly intensified,which leads to food security risks,and leads to a series of problems such as food security and ecological environment protection.In addition,the rural strong labor force continues to flow to the city,land abandoned.Limited resources and unlimited population demand lead to the gradual decline of cultivated land per capita,even below the world average.Therefore,protecting cultivated land and strictly observing the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land are important issues to realize the long-term stability and sustainable economic development of the country.This paper first analyzes its evolution status from four aspects: historical evolution,structural evolution,spatial evolution and basic farmland;secondly,it establishes an index system from all aspects of social and economic development,and uses principal component analysis to determine the main factors influencing the index system;finally,the paper establishes the geographical weighted regression model,and compares with the least square method,and the effectiveness of the geographic weighted regression model is proved,And the spatial heterogeneity of coefficient is analyzed for the main factors affecting the evolution of cultivated land spatial structure in China.Through the above model analysis,we can draw the following conclusions:(1)The total change of cultivated land area in China is different,and six provinces and cities are in the decreasing trend and all of them are located in the southern coastal and central areas.The overall trend of change range and rate is the same,and the whole trend is high in the north and low in the south,and gradually decreasing from the surrounding to the middle.(2)According to the regional differences,the spatial structure of cultivated land in China can be divided into four types: contraction type,slow expansion type,low-speed expansion type and rapid expansion type.The overall trend is gradually increasing from west to East,more in the South and less in the north,and increasing from four to center.(3)According to the different endowment of local space resources and the calculation results,the average value of comprehensive efficiency in China is 0.655,and it is divided into four regional levels: low comprehensive efficiency,secondary middle area of comprehensive efficiency,middle area of comprehensive efficiency,sub high comprehensive efficiency area and high comprehensive efficiency area,with significant spatial difference.(4)According to the spatial coupling index of 31 provinces and cities in China,the spatial coupling index is divided into five types according to the expert standard,namely,the strong advantage of cultivated land,the advantage of cultivated land,the coupling of spatial pattern,the advantage of economic development and the strong advantage of economic development.The overall development mode is transformed from the advantage of cultivated land to the advantage of economic development.(5)The spatial structure of cultivated land in China is mainly affected by three leading factors: grain yield,secondary industry proportion and per capita GDP,which respectively represent the level of agricultural science and technology,industrial structure adjustment and social and economic development.On this basis,in order to solve the outstanding problems of current cultivated land protection,the paper puts forward feasible suggestions from the following aspects: to implement the protection of cultivated land,to balance the occupation and supplement;to adjust the industrial structure and to coordinate the economic development;to promote the intensive use of land,to activate the land stock;to promote the progress of agricultural science and technology and to provide the efficiency of cultivated land production.