Quantitative Analysis Of Wheat Production In The Huang-Huai-Hai Region Based On Multi-Source Data

As the “golden area” of wheat production and an important commodity grain production base in China,the Huang-Huai-Hai（HHH）wheat area bears 75% of the wheat production tasks in China.The harvest of HHH wheat is of great significance to the national economic and social development,the balance of food supply and demand,and the protection of national social food security.Through a series of quantitative relationship analysis of wheat production in HHH region,this study attempts to clarify the main factors affecting wheat production,understand the level of wheat production efficiency,and explore new space for increasing production,so as to provide theoretical and technical support for the scientific management of wheat production,ensuring the stable and high yield of wheat,and the effective establishment of national food security policies.Wheat production is an extremely complex and systematic process,and its complexity is manifested in many aspects such as regional,seasonal,artificial and social.Wheat grows in nature,and the growth environment is an open environment.Its production activities are affected by many factors,such as climate,soil,resource input,technical management and so on.According to the actual development of wheat production,it is necessary to start from the mutual restriction and correlation of a large number of production factors,dynamic,multi-level and systematic investigation,so as to further improve the level of “two high and one excellent”.The rapid development of modern science and technology and the wide application of computer technology have produced a large number of multi-source data with different structures and forms in wheat production management.How to systematize these data,use them centrally and extract potential information is a subject of great practical significance for effectively supporting wheat production management and scientific decision-making.In view of this,this study collected,extracted,quantified and integrated multi-source type data affecting wheat production from 2010 to 2020 through different data websites,such as socio-economic,climate and soil,policies and regulations,carbon emissions,etc.,and conducted data format inspection,cleaning and repair.Based on the relevant data base,the following studies were mainly conducted:（1）Analysis of the HHH wheat production status.The spatialtemporal differentiation pattern of wheat yield in HHH region was quantitatively analyzed by Theil index and exploratory spatial analysis,and compared with the current situation of wheat production in China.The study found that: The proportion of wheat planting area and yield in HHH increased year by year,from 55.20% and 69.05% in 2010 to 65.73% and 72.86% in 2020 respectively.The yield gap between different secondary tillage intervals is gradually narrowing,and the variation law of interval difference and intra-regional difference is synchronized in time.The spatial distribution pattern of wheat production in HHH region is High-High agglomeration and Low-Low agglomeration..（2）Diagnosis of wheat production factors in HHH region.On the basis of multi-source data integration and model and algorithm combination optimization,a GABP-MIV variable screening algorithm was constructed.The contribution of different factors was measured by the determination of the best training model,and 12 key influencing factors were identified.The specific control path,action mode and effect characteristics of the key influencing factors were explored.The study found that: The key factors affecting wheat production mainly include social economy and meteorology,and their cumulative contribution to wheat production reached 82.771%.The release of policy documents and atmospheric CO₂ emissions are positively correlated with wheat production within a certain range,with contributions of 3.971% and 3.751%,respectively.Only socio-economic factors have direct and indirect effects on wheat production,and the total effect value is the highest.Climate factors,CO₂ emissions and policy documents are all single indirect effects.The effect of secondary factors such as soil moisture is not obvious,but these factors exist in the path model and act as mediating variables to indirectly regulate wheat production.（3）HHH wheat production efficiency evaluation.Taking the key factors obtained from multi-source index data screening as input,it is divided into different levels,and combined with grey correlation and maximum entropy principle,a multi-layer grey entropy weighting analysis framework of wheat production efficiency in HHH region is proposed.The study found that: During the study period,only the technical efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of HHH wheat production in 2014 and 2018 were effective.The overall production efficiency of the Huang-Huai Plain is higher than that of other farming areas,but most of the years are in an ineffective state of production,and there is a large room for improvement in wheat production efficiency as a whole;The efficient production city is mainly concentrated in the central and southern regions of HHH,and the efficient production city unit accounts for 16.67% of the whole HHH region.There are great differences in fertilizer,labor force and other aspects of wheat production in high and low efficiency city unit.（4）Study on the yield potential of HHH wheat.With the help of GIS platform and potential attenuation method,the socio-economic effective coefficient was constructed,and the photosynthesis,light and temperature,climate,socio-economic yield-increasing potential and yield-increasing space of wheat in HHH region were calculated and analyzed.Through the superposition and fusion of different data layers,the yield-increasing potential grade area was divided.The study found that: The natural resource production potential of HHH wheat production has obvious advantages.The photosynthetic yield potential,light and temperature yield potential and climate yield potential can reach 10,717.42kg/hm²,10,186.13kg/hm² and 8,796.70kg/hm²,respectively.The dominant areas of social and economic yield potential are mainly distributed in the central and southern parts of HuangHuai-Hai,while the dominant areas of natural resources yield potential are mostly distributed in the central and northern parts of HHH.In the regional division of I^IV yield increase grade,the yield increase potential showed a stepwise decreasing trend from south to north,and the theoretical value of comprehensive yield increase potential and yield increase space could reach 14,488.98kg/hm² and 84.83% respectively.