| In order to address climate change and demonstrate the responsibility of major countries,in 2020,China officially made commitments to the international community to "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality",and elevated them to a national development strategy.How to scientifically formulate the "dual carbon" action plan has become one of the focuses of general attention of governments and academics at all levels.Zhejiang is a major economic province in China,and it is also an "important window" for the superiority of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics;How to scientifically formulate the "dual carbon" strategy,action plan and realization path while ensuring sustained and stable economic growth,take the lead in achieving the "dual carbon" goal,and set an example for the whole country is a major issue and political task facing Zhejiang’s future economic and social development.At present,the academic community has carried out a series of assessments on the spatial distribution,influencing factors and spillover effects of forest carbon sequestration and sequestration,but on the one hand,most of the existing studies are based on the macro perspective of the region,even the whole country and the world,and the research on a smaller range of districts and counties is relatively rare.On the other hand,in terms of the influencing factors of forest carbon sequestration capacity,it focuses on the independent description of a specific natural or human factor,lacks the inclusion of natural factors,economic and social factors and natural factors into a complete research framework,and the accuracy of the marginal contribution of key variables is low.In view of this,based on the Arc GIS platform,this paper objectively reflects the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of forest carbon storage in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2020 based on the Arc GIS platform and the county as the research scale.Based on the theoretical analysis framework affecting forest carbon storage,the spatial Dubin model is used to further measure the marginal contribution of different driving factors to forest carbon storage and investigate whether there is spatial spillover effect,in order to provide theoretical and practical reference for how to formulate regional synergistic forest sink enhancement measures and help Zhejiang achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the overall increase rate of forest carbon storage and carbon density in all districts and counties of Zhejiang Province was high,and the regional differences were large,and the accumulation center and aggregation range of forest carbon storage in Zhejiang Province moved to the southwest.West Zhejiang and Southwest Zhejiang are high-value accumulation areas of forest carbon storage and carbon density in Zhejiang,and the increase rate is also high,while the carbon storage and carbon density in the eastern region are relatively low and the increase rate is also low.(2)(1)If the spatial spillover effect is not considered,the per capita GDP,road density and urbanization rate among economic and social factors have a negative and significant impact on forest carbon storage;Population density has a positive and significant impact on forest carbon stocks.Among the policy factors,forest harvesting quotas have a significant negative impact on forest carbon stocks.The amount of ecological public welfare forest has a positive impact on forest carbon storage.(2)If spatial effects are considered,with regard to economic and social factors,the increase in per capita GDP and road density will reduce forest carbon stocks.Regarding policy factors,the increase in deforestation will reduce forest carbon stock,and the ecological public welfare forest tenure and forest carbon storage have a significant positive relationship.(3)further discuss the spillover effects of various influencing factors,and as for direct effects,the per capita GDP and road density in socio-economic factors have a negative and significant relationship with forest carbon sequestration in the region;Among the policy factors,deforestation had a negative and significant relationship with forest carbon sequestration in the region,and the forest public welfare forest tenure had a significant positive effect on the forest carbon storage in the region.Regarding spillover effects,among the socio-economic factors,per capita GDP and road density have significant positive spillover effects,which are opposite to the effects on the region,and urbanization rate has significant negative spillover effects.Among the policy factors,there are significant negative spillover effects of forest harvesting quotas.(3)Forest carbon sink potential forecast,from the perspective of the whole province,from 2020 to 2060,Zhejiang Province’s forest carbon storage has been in a state of growth.By the end of the forecast period in 2060,the total carbon storage of Zhejiang Province will be 479,328,300 tons.During the period 2050-2060,Zhejiang Province can fix 21.8089 million tons of fixed carbon dioxide per year through forests,accounting for 15% of the total carbon emissions in that year.From the perspective of different geographical distribution,from2030 to 2060,the largest increase in forest carbon storage is in Lishui City and Hangzhou City,with carbon storage reaching more than 90 million tons,followed by Jinhua City,Wenzhou City,Quzhou City,Taizhou City,Ningbo City,Shaoxing City with forest carbon storage between 30 million and 60 million tons,and Huzhou City,Zhoushan City and Jiaxing City with smaller carbon storage potential,all less than 20 million tons.According to the above research conclusions,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed: First,when promoting carbon neutrality,we should pay attention to forest carbon storage,and transform the potential and cost advantages of forest carbon sinks into practical advantages of carbon reduction.Second,when promoting the achievement of the "dual carbon" goal,it is necessary and adaptable to local conditions,rather than uniform.The third is to further strengthen and optimize the incentive policy for increasing forest sinks.Therefore,based on the macro background of Zhejiang Province taking the lead in achieving carbon neutrality and the prediction results of carbon sink potential,we should actively start from the economic,social and policy levels,consider the impact of spillover effects,promote the promotion mechanism of county forest carbon sequestration work,and form a forest carbon sequestration development plan suitable for county. |
