GPS、MGPS、HS MGPS In Patients With Acute Exacerbation Of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Objective:Through a retrospective study on the hospitalization data of patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(AECOPD),according to the prognosis of patients with AECOPD,the Glasgow Prognostic Scale(GPS),Modified Glasgow Prognostic Scale(mGPS)and High Sensitivity Modified Glasgow Prognostic Scale(HS-mGPS)for statistical analysis and comparison of the value of predicting the prognosis of patients.Methods:Patients hospitalized with AECOPD in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from January 1,2019 to December 31,2019 were selected.165 patients who met the inclusion criteria were selected according to the relevant standards.The basic information and laboratory indexes such as C-reactive protein(CRP),albumin(ALB)and leukocyte count at admission were collected,and the survival of the selected cases after 24 months was recorded.According to the situation,they were divided into death group(n = 40)and survival group(n = 125).The counting data were expressed by mean ± standard deviation(± S.The general data and laboratory data of the two groups with different outcomes were analyzed by the Chi-square and T test;The area under ROC curve(AUC)was further calculated to evaluate the predictive value of GPS score and MGPS score on the prognosis of AECOPD patients;P < 0.05 was statistically significant.Cox risk regression model was used to analyze the related risk factors;Kaplan Meier survival analysis was performed to compare the differences of GPS score,MGPS score and HS MGPS score on the prognosis of AECOPD.Results:1.(1)general data: general data of patients in survival group and death group within the deadline.There were 88 males and 37 females in survival group;The average age was(70.81 ± 10.13)years;There were 75 cases of smoking,50 cases of denying smoking history,and the average course of disease was(11.14 ± 10.35)years.There were 35 males and 5 females in the death group;The average age was(76.97 ±9.01)years;There were 24 cases of smoking,16 cases of denying smoking history,and the average course of disease was(11.14 ± 10.35)years(P > 0.05);(2)Laboratory data: the number of lymphocytes(1.56 ± 2.28)* 10 ^ 9 / L,the number of platelets(209.50 ±76.36)* 10 ^ 9 / L,CRP(18.21 ± 25.71)mg / L,ALB(39.52 ± 4.46)g / L,NLR(7.63 ± 8.04),PLR(206.86 ± 147.22)and the number of lymphocytes(0.89 ± 0.37)* 10 ^ 9 / L,platelets(196.75 ± 81.54)* 10 ^ 9 / L The differences of CRP(49.45 ± 63.30)mg / L,ALB(34.70 ± 3.66)g / L,NLR(11.16 ± 8.59)and PLR(261.77 ± 152.58)were statistically significant(P <0.05).2.Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that GPS score,MGPS score,HS MGPS score and ALB were potential risk factors of AECOPD(P <0.05).3.The areas under the ROC curve of GPS score,MGPS score and HS MGPS score are 0.75,0.69 and 0.80 respectively,which are greater than the areas under the ROC curve of CRP(0.70),NLR(0.65)and PLR(0.63).4.Kaplan Meier survival analysis showed that the higher the GPS score,MGPS score and HS MGPS score,the lower the survival rate of patients.Conclusion: 1.GPS score,mGPS score and HS-mGPS score are risk factors affecting the poor prognosis of AECOPD patients.2.The higher the GPS score,mGPS score and HS-mGPS score,the lower the survival rate of AECOPD patients.3.GPS score,mGPS score and HS-mGPS score have higher clinical predictive value for the prognosis of AECOPD patients than NLR,PLR and CRP.4.Among the three scoring systems of GPS score,mGPS score and HS-mGPS score,HS-mGPS score is the best predictor of clinical prognosis.