| As an important part of Chinese foreign economic development,cultural product trade plays an important role in promoting the comprehensive competitiveness of Chinese cultural industry and enhancing national soft power.In 2013,President Xi Jinping proposed “the Belt and Road” Initiative,one of its main objectives is to promote long-term cultural cooperation with countries along “the Belt and Road”.Although the overall scale of Chinese cultural products exports continues to expand,there is still a big gap in the number and duration of cultural products trade compared with other commodities.Cultural product trade should not only be based on diversified growth strategies;but also consider how to achieve sustainable development.At the same time,the influence of cultural factors closely related to the characteristics of cultural products on cultural trade has been concerned by scholars,but the conclusions of existing literature are not consistent.Therefore,it is of great practical and theoretical significance for the long-term development of Chinese cultural industry to study the impact of cultural proximity on the export duration of cultural products between China and other countries along “the Belt and Road”.Taking the export trade of cultural products as the breakthrough point,this thesis selects the duration of Chinese export of cultural products to 61 countries along “the Belt and Road”as the research object,and probes into the influence of cultural proximity on the export duration of Chinese cultural products to countries along “the Belt and Road”.This thesis first introduces the relevant basic theories and combs the influencing mechanism of cultural proximity on export duration.It is found that cultural proximity reduces transaction costs,promotes similar consumption preferences,and enhances consumption addiction in cultural trade,thus promoting the extension of export duration.Secondly,in the part of the present situation analysis,this thesis selects the core cultural products exported by China to the countries along“the Belt and Road” from 2008 to 2017;and analyzes the export status of cultural products to61 countries along “the Belt and Road” from the perspectives of export scale,product structure and export regional structure.It is found that the export scale of Chinese cultural products to the countries along “the Belt and Road” is expanding,and the overall trend is increasing,but there are problems of unbalanced product structure and excessive concentration of target markets.Thirdly,based on the national and product levels,this thesis uses Kaplan-Meier survival analysis method to measure the export duration of Chinese cultural products.The result shows that the average export duration of cultural products is 3.30 years,and there is a certain negative time dependence on trade relations.Then,the samples of export trade duration are divided according to product classification and civilization types of countries,and the characteristics of differences in export survival rates of cultural products of different categories and civilization types of countries are obtained.Finally,the discrete-time Logit model is used to empirically study the impact of the export duration of Chinese cultural products to countries along “the Belt and Road”.The result shows that cultural proximity significantly impacts the export duration of Chinese cultural products to “the Belt and Road” countries.The stronger the cultural proximity between the two countries is,the more conducive it is to maintain the continuous export of Chinese cultural products to “the Belt and Road” countries.The robustness test also proves the credibility of the empirical research.Based on the research results,this thesis puts forward some targeted policy suggestions to promote the export duration of Chinese cultural products from the perspective of the government and enterprises. |