The Impact Of Two-child Policy On Commercial Insurance

With the publication of the results of the seventh census,the problem of population aging has gradually attracted people’s attention.The government began to encourage childbearing in2011,and implemented a comprehensive two-child policy in January 2016,aiming to raise the national fertility rate and improve the fertility structure.At present,China is in the stage of social security system with basic social security as the leading factor and commercial insurance developing rapidly.Commercial insurance as a preventive asset can resist future risks to a certain extent.This paper aims to answer the following questions by studying the impact of the two-child policy on commercial insurance.Does the two-child policy improve the family population structure in China? Does this policy affect the willingness to pay commercial insurance? At the same time,this paper discusses the impact of commercial pension insurance and commercial medical insurance.Firstly,the theory of this paper is analyzed,including demographic transition theory and expected utility theory.Based on the theory of family life cycle,this paper analyzes the factors that affect commercial insurance.Secondly,based on the data of the National Bureau of Statistics,this paper analyzes the family structure of children after the implementation of the two-child policy.Thirdly,this paper uses the data of 2018 from China Family Tracking Survey Database(CFPS)to establish Probit model to empirically test the impact of the number of children on commercial insurance,and carries out heterogeneity,robustness test and impact mechanism analysis on the test results according to the nature of individual work.Finally,this paper summarizes the results of the study and puts forward some suggestions on promoting the two-child policy and improving the commercial insurance system.The main research results are as follows: The promulgation of the two-child policy has increased the proportion of children in the family structure.The increase in the number of children has squeezed out part of the consumption,increased the intergenerational transfer payment rate in the family and improved parents’ psychological security under the traditional concept of raising children for old age.Collectively,these effect reduce households’ demand for commercial insurance.In addition,this paper divides commercial insurance into commercial endowment insurance and commercial medical insurance,and finds that due to the high popularization rate and wide coverage of basic medical care in China,the increase in the number of children will reduce the individual demand for commercial medical insurance.However,the number of children has no significant effect on commercial endowment insurance.In the process of heterogeneity analysis,the study found that the increase in the number of children of individuals working in state-owned enterprises has no significant impact on the demand for commercial insurance due to the stability of their work and the soundness of social security,while the increase in the number of children of individuals working in non-state-owned enterprises has a significant negative impact on commercial insurance.Participation in basic pension insurance has a significant positive impact on individual purchase of commercial insurance;Participation in basic medical insurance has a significant negative effect on individual purchase of commercial insurance.Urban residents are more likely to buy commercial insurance than rural residents.Household income has a significant positive impact on the purchase of commercial insurance.In addition,this paper also proves that with the promulgation of the two-child policy,the number of children in the family increases,thus increasing household consumption expenditure,thereby reducing the demand for commercial insurance.