Population Trend Prediction And Influencing Factors Analysis In Heilongjiang Province Based On Improved GM(1,1) Model

Along with our socialist modernization process speeding up,great changes have taken place in the population structure of our country,and compared with other areas,the population problem of the northeast region has certain particularity,the youth,aging and population outflow appear together,so the in-depth exploration of the northeast region population problem,to revitalize the development of the northeast region is very important.This paper takes population-related data and other related index data of Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020 as samples to carry out a detailed study on the influencing factors and future development trend of population decline in Northeast China.First,the random forest regression model was used to screen out the eight main influencing factors of population reduction in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020.On this basis,the ISM model was used to analyze the hierarchy and logical relationship among the influencing factors.Meanwhile,the principal component analysis and Ridge regression model were used to explore the influencing direction of each influencing factor and population development.Secondly,based on the research of GM(1,1)model improvement,this paper proposes a method to improve the original data smoothness by using HP filtering,so as to improve the prediction accuracy of the traditional GM(1,1)model.The improved GM(1,1)model,namely HP-GM(1,1)model,was used to predict the future development trend of juvenile and elderly population in Heilongjiang Province.Meanwhile,the effect of combining GM(1,1)with other data smoothing methods was compared with the results of HP-GM(1,1),and the optimal combination model was selected according to the prediction accuracy.Empirical analysis shows that the main factors affecting population decline in Heilongjiang Province are per capita GDP,contribution rate of tertiary industry,per capita disposable income of urban residents,consumption level of urban residents and birth rate,while the secondary factors are marriage rate,dependency ratio of the elderly population and average wage of employed personnel.In addition,the marriage rate and birth rate have a positive impact on the population development,while the per capita GDP,the contribution rate of the tertiary industry,the per capita disposable income of urban residents,the consumption level of urban residents,the average wage of employed personnel and the dependency ratio of the elderly population have a negative impact on the population development.By comparing different data smoothing methods and combining with GM(1,1)model,the prediction effect of the new HP-GM(1,1)model is proved to be better,and the application scope of GM(1,1)model is expanded.This paper makes an in-depth study of the population influencing factors and the improvement of the prediction model.On the basis of screening out the factors affecting the population of Heilongjiang Province,the hierarchical logical relationship among all factors and the direction of their influence on the population development are clarified.Then,the improved prediction model is used to make short-term prediction of the population.It has certain reference significance for the future development of population in Heilongjiang Province.