Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Risk-taking Of Commercial Banks

In recent years,China’s population aging is facing an increasingly severe situation,leading that the social impact has become more and more extensive and in-depth.Because of it,governments at various levels have issued many policies to promote the process of social aging.In the process of tackling the problem of population aging,it should be noted that population aging also has a certain impact on the normal operation of China’s commercial banking system,which may affect the stability in the financial sector.Therefore,the government,regulatory authorities and commercial banks should pay attention to it and take it into account when dealing with bank risks.This is of great significance to maintain the stability of the risk bearing level of China’s commercial banks,win the battle to prevent and defuse financial risks and make commercial banks better serve the real economy.Based on the relevant data of 189 commercial banks in China,including 5 state-owned commercial banks,12 joint-stock commercial banks,89 urban commercial banks and 83 rural commercial banks,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging on the risk-taking of commercial banks.The research interval is from 2007 to 2021.Firstly,it analyzes the impact of population aging on the risk-taking of commercial banks.Secondly,from the perspective of bank leverage,deposit structure and liquidity pressure changes,the specific mechanism of action between them is further explored and hypotheses are proposed on this basis.Then this paper uses the two-way fixed effect model and the mediating effect model to test the above hypothesis.The robustness test is carried out by using dynamic panel model,replacing core explanatory variables and deleting some time intervals that may produce extreme values.Finally,the heterogeneity of different types of commercial banks and commercial banks with different profitability is analyzed by sub-sample method.The main conclusions are as follows:There is a significant positive correlation between population aging and risk-taking of commercial banks in China.Population aging has increased the level of bank risk-taking.Specifically,mainly by these channels of increasing the relative size of loans to enhance the level of bank leverage;increasing the proportion of low-term deposits to worsen the structure of bank deposits;encouraging moral hazard to increase liquidity pressure to achieve.This paper further analyzes the heterogeneity of the impact of different types of banks,and finds that urban commercial banks are the most affected,followed by rural commercial banks and national commercial banks.The heterogeneity analysis of the impact of banks with different profitability levels shows that banks with high profitability are less affected.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions from the perspectives of government,regulatory authorities and commercial bank managers:when the government makes targeted monetary,fiscal and industrial policies on the issue of population aging,it is necessary to take into account the direct and indirect effects of policies on the banking risk system;the regulatory authorities should strengthen the supervision of the risk level of financial institutions,be alert to the negative impact of population aging on the commercial banking system,and formulate differentiated regulatory policies;commercial banks should improve their business operation level and conform to the social aging orientation in business operation;commercial banks should be prepared to actively respond to the impact of population aging,improve the risk quantification model,further optimize the capital structure,and maintain the risk-taking level within a reasonable range.