Study On The Influence Of Household Population Structure On Residents’ Debt Behavior

With the progress of science and technology and the improvement of economic development level,people’s quality of life is constantly improving,and the concept of "excessive consumption" is gradually accepted by more people.In recent years,the household debt level of Chinese residents continued to rise.Data from the central bank show that Chinese household leverage ratio has reached 62.2% in 2021,significantly higher than the average leverage ratio of emerging economies and a moderately high position in the international community.At present,our economy has turned to a high quality stage of development,and the high level of resident debt will have a negative effect on the economic development,not conducive to national financial stability.Therefore,it is particularly important to deeply understand the influencing factors of household debt behavior.People are the main body of social economic activities,and the change of population structure will have a non-negligible impact on economic development.At present,a series of problems caused by declining fertility rate,such as aging children,have gradually become the focus of social attention.In the long run,declining fertility and increasing ageing are bound to bring about demographic changes.Therefore,this paper chooses to study the influence of household population structure on residents’ willingness and debt scale from a micro perspective.In this paper,the data of 2019 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)are taken as samples,and appropriate variables are selected for research by reading existing literature.Starting from the perspective of the whole family,this paper takes the proportion of the elderly and the proportion of the children as the indicators to measure the age structure of the population,and the proportion of the family members who have received higher education as the indicators to measure the education structure of the population,as the core explanatory variables of this paper.After proper processing of the original data,Probit and Tobit models were used for regression analysis to study the influence of household population structure on different types of debt behaviors of residents,and heterogeneity analysis was carried out.Through the analysis and summary of the empirical results,this paper draws the following conclusions: First,the ratio of the elderly population has a significant inhibitory effect on the total household debt and different types of debt.Second,the ratio of children to population has a significant positive impact on total household debt and housing debt,and a significant negative impact on operational debt.Third,higher education ratio has a significant positive impact on total household debt,consumption debt and housing debt,but has a significant negative impact on operational debt.Fourthly,the influence of household population structure on residents’ debt behavior is heterogeneous in terms of region,urban and rural areas,income level,age of household head and structure of children.Combined with the current situation of population structure and household debt and the empirical analysis results,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:first,improve the pension and medical security system,establish a correct consumption concept.Second,reduce the economic pressure brought by childbearing and call for gender equality.Third,increase investment in education and narrow the education gap between eastern and western China and between urban and rural areas.Fourth,standardize the credit market and promote consumer credit innovation.