The Influence Of Population Structure On Household Debt Behavior

Since the 2008 financial crisis,China’s household debt ratio has been on the rise,exceeding the average level of emerging market countries.At the same time,with the development of housing mortgage loans and consumer finance,China’s household debt problem has attracted more and more attention.The population is the mainstay of social and economic development.The domestic literature on debt related research mostly focuses on corporate debt and government debt.The research on household debt is also mainly carried out from the macroeconomic level,and there are few studies on household debt behavior from the population level.In research,most literatures add the demographic characteristics of the household head as a control variable to the model for correlation analysis of household debt.Using the five-year micro-panel data of the China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS),this paper not only includes the proxy variables of the age structure commonly used in the literature,but also creatively joins the family by using the five-year micro-panel data of the Chinese Family Tracking Survey(CFPS).The sex ratio of the population is used as an explanatory variable,and the demographic characteristics of the household head,family economic and financial factors,and future expected factors are added as control variables.The dummy variable of household debt willingness and the scale of household debt are used as the explained variables.Logit and Tobit are used respectively.The model performs basic regression.Further,this article discusses the moderating effect of income on the process of population structure affecting household debt,as well as related heterogeneity analysis and endogenous treatment.Through empirical research,the main conclusions obtained in this paper are as follows:(1)There is a significant negative correlation between the old-age dependency ratio and the household’s willingness to debt and debt scale.(2)The child dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on household debt willingness and debt scale.With the improvement of the economic development level and the change of concept of fertility,the family is affected by the educational concept of "looking for a child to become a dragon,and hope for a daughter to become a phoenix".Families with few children have continuously increased their investment in all aspects of their children,and the cost of childbirth has brought a lot of burden to the family.(3)The gender ratio has a significant positive impact on household debt willingness and debt scale.Due to the squeeze of male marriage brought about by gender imbalance,men need more wealth display to improve their competitiveness in the marriage market.(4)Income not only reduces the negative effect of the old-age dependency ratio on household debt willingness and scale,but also reduces the positive effect of gender ratio on household debt.(5)The influence of population structure on household debt behavior has regional heterogeneity based on the level of economic development,and the heterogeneity of debt usage and debt channels.Finally,this article puts forward policy recommendations based on credit,population,social security,and employment.