The Design And Prediction Of The National Plan For Pension Insurance For Enterprise Employees Under The Assumption Of Delayed Retirement

In order to reasonably balance the differences in fund burden among regions and achieve the sustainable development of basic pension insurance,China officially launched the construction of the national overall pension system for enterprise employees in 2022.At present,the new system is still in its early stages,and measuring the scale of fund allocation and predicting the effectiveness of redistribution are the focus of research at this stage.In this paper,the actuarial calculation of the pension insurance balance of Chinese provincial enterprises is carried out under the assumption of delayed retirement.Three national pooling schemes are designed based on different objectives and compared.The research results have significant theoretical and practical significance for formulating pooling schemes,improving pooling systems,and improving pooling levels.Firstly,based on the relevant data on enterprise employee pension insurance in the2012-2021 statistical yearbook,analyze the problems and potential problems in the income and expenditure process of China’s insurance system.The results show that due to the intensification of aging,if the pension system for enterprise employees in China is not reformed at the national level,it will not be able to ensure the balance of pension income and expenditure;If the overall planning policy is not improved at the regional level,it will further exacerbate the structural differences between pension regions.Secondly,the actuarial model is used to calculate the income and expenditure balance of enterprise employee pension insurance in 31 provincial-level regions of China.Design a specific deferred retirement plan based on the mainstream models of the international deferred retirement system,and conduct actuarial analysis of pension insurance income and expenditure based on this plan.The calculation results show that delaying retirement can to some extent alleviate the potential fund gap caused by population aging,but it cannot solve the problem of regional income and expenditure imbalance.Therefore,further improving the level of coordination is crucial.Thirdly,design three national pooling plans for enterprise employee pension insurance based on different goals,and compare the redistribution effects of each plan during the prediction period.The Gini coefficient and Theil index are used to measure space difference,and two Markov chain models are used to analyze the spatial transformation.The redistribution effect is investigated through space-time deduction,and the optimal scheme is selected according to the results.Finally,based on the previous analysis,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for the national pooling of pension insurance in China from the perspectives of improving fertility level,stabilizing employment situation,implementing delayed retirement and national pooling system,enriching the pension insurance system,and expanding the scale of financial subsidies,in order to promote the sustainable and balanced operation and development of the pension insurance system.