Research On The Impact Of Population Structure Changes On The Revenue And Expenditure Of The Urban Employee Pension Insurance Fund In Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

In recent years,as the situation of population aging in China has become more and more severe,and the population structure is also undergoing fundamental changes.The issue of pension balance has also received more and more attention.The purpose of this study is to explore the balance of revenue and expenditure and financial sustainability of the urban employee pension insurance fund in Guangxi Province,with the population structure as the main independent variable,in 2020-2025.With a view to providing feasible countermeasures and suggestions for solving public management-related issues in the process of policy implementation.Firstly,we choose the age shift algorithm to predict the sex-based urban labor population and the elderly population in the region.The analysis of the population structure changes in the region is used to support the research on the balance of revenue and expenditure of the urban employee pension insurance fund.Secondly,according to the current legal regulations and policy documents,a model for the revenue and expenditure of the urban employee pension insurance fund in Guangxi Province is established.Using the demographic data obtained previously and the basic data in the 2011-2018 China Labor Statistics Yearbook and the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Human Resources and Social Security in Guangxi,and then using statistical methods and previous research conclusions of some scholars,predict and set parameters such as the contribution rate for insurance participation,the average social wage,pension adjustment rate,and personal account accounting rate,and then simulate and balance analyze the revenue and expenditure of the urban employee pension insurance fund in Guangxi from 2020 to 2025.Thirdly,from the perspective of the distribution of levy and treatment personnel,the trend and gap of the urban employee pension revenue and expenditure,and the replacement rate of pensions to study the correlation between the impact of population structure changes on the revenue and expenditure of the pension insurance in the region,then draw the main conclusion.Finally,combined with the results of the previous research and the actual situation of Guangxi Province,the following countermeasures are proposed to promote the balance of the urban employee pension insurance fund in Guangxi Province and optimize financial sustainability.First,we should introduce policies to optimize the population structure,including but not limited to the two-child policy and the delayed retirement policy;second,we should optimize the income and expenditure policies of the urban employee pension insurance in the region in conjunction with the existing population structure;third,we should promote economic development and continue to improve urban development and to attract foreign labor.