| According to the seventh national census(2020),my country’s total fertility rate today is 1.3,a sharp drop from 6.1 in the 1960 s.Low fertility rates often lead to an ageing population,which is a challenge to the country’s economic growth and social welfare.In response to the population decline,the government has successively issued a number of fertility policies since 2013.It took less than eight years from the opening of the second child to the comprehensive third child.However,the promulgation of the policy only triggered a period of fertility tide,and did not bring about the fertility rate.How to improve the fertility level has become a problem that needs to be solved urgently.In the face of the current fertility status and combined with previous research,this paper firstly summarizes the fertility-related theories and the research status of fertility willingness at home and abroad.On this basis,it analyzes the fertility willingness of different groups and the main influencing factors.Study 1 obtained data from the China General Social Survey(CGSS2017)and the National Statistical Yearbook(2017),and used a multi-layer linear model to analyze the influence of regional and individual-level factors on the fertility willingness of childbearing age groups.Since the first study found that the fertility willingness of the "post-90s" was significantly lower than that of the group born in the 1970 s and 1980 s,and the "post-90s" group is the main force of fertility in the future,it is the focus of our attention to further understand the fertility status of this group and the reasons for its impact.Today,the announcement of the three-child policy has allowed people to pay more attention to factors outside the policy when considering childbearing intentions.Therefore,Study 2 uses "the number of children who intend to have children" as the measurement index of the number of births,which can more accurately measure the number of people’s fertility willingness,and can be compared with Study 1,adding gender preference,birth time,birth interval and birth rate.Objective and so on to more comprehensively understand the main force of fertility in the future: the fertility status,changing trend and influencing reasons of the "post-90s" group.The results of the study are as follows:(1)There is no significant gender difference in the ideal number of children of childbearing age groups,but significant differences in urban and rural areas,ethnicity,date of birth,marital status,religious belief,education level,and personal annual income.(2)At the individual level,gender role attitudes,well-being,and class mobility expectations have a significant impact on the ideal number of children of childbearing age groups.The more traditional the gender role attitude,the stronger the willingness to have children;the higher the level of well-being,the stronger the willingness to have children;the higher the expectation of class mobility,the stronger the willingness to have children.(3)At the regional level,the level of regional economic development has no significant effect on fertility willingness;regional fertility culture can significantly predict fertility willingness.The more traditional the fertility culture,the stronger the fertility willingness.(4)Regional fertility culture plays a moderating role between the influence of religious belief on fertility willingness.(5)In terms of the number of children born,the expected number of children of the "post-90s" childbearing age group has significant differences in gender,urban and rural areas,personal annual income,and type of work unit,but not in marital status and education level.Gender,urban and rural areas,education level,work unit type,and class mobility expectation have a significant impact on the expected number of children.The higher the class mobility expectation,the stronger the willingness to have children.(6)In terms of fertility preference,gender preference is significantly different in terms of gender,educational level and unit type,but not in urban and rural areas.Most of the "post-90s" childbearing age groups have no obvious preference for gender,and their preference for girls even exceeds that for boys,but there are still a small number of men who prefer boys.(7)In terms of childbearing time,the "post-90s" childbearing age group expects the time of first marriage and first child to be significantly delayed.Nearly half of the people let the time of first marriage take their course,and 60% of people want to have their first child between the ages of 26 and 31.The age of childbearing is oppressive.Although the time of first marriage and first child is delayed,the ideal birth interval for most people is within four years.(8)Regarding the purpose of reproduction,the "post-90s" child-bearing age group emphasizes individualism and the satisfaction of self-needs,but there are still a small number of people who have not yet gotten rid of external pressure and the concept of inheriting the lineage.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)The willingness to have children of childbearing age groups is not only affected by individual-level variables: gender,urban and rural areas,ethnicity,date of birth,marital status,religious belief,education level,unit type,personal annual income,gender role attitude,happiness,class mobility The expected impact is also affected by the regional fertility culture.(2)The "post-90s" childbearing age group has no obvious preference for the gender of having children,and expects a significant delay in the time of first marriage and first child.The ideal birth interval for most people is within four years.More emphasis is placed on individualism and the satisfaction of self-needs when making reproductive decisions. |
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