Analysis Of The Impact Of Primary Education Quality On Urban Housing Price

In recent years,urban house prices have been at a high level,and explaining the factors that influence house price increases has become a clichéd issue in the study of economic theory.By summarising the research of scholars at home and abroad,the factors that influence house prices can generally be divided into several areas:economic growth,urbanisation,population size,land supply,credit policy and land policy,as well as transport construction,environmental management and other influencing factors.This paper builds on this foundation and extends the research on the impact of house prices,taking into account the increasing importance families attach to their children’s education and the fact that parents have always regarded education as one of the most valuable "investments",with the intention of studying the impact of quality primary school education resources on house prices.In reality,China’s education resources,including primary schooling resources,show significant spatial imbalances depending on the level of economic development between regions,with generally higher quality primary schools in cities with better economic power.According to the push-pull theory,in pursuit of higher quality primary school education resources,some families with financial means will choose suitable living environments,increasing the supply of quality education resources and accompanying the capitalisation of education with premiums for surrounding housing areas.At the same time,some keen real estate agents will also take advantage of families’ pursuit of quality school districts and attract more families to buy homes under the banner of "key school districts".But what goes around comes around,and families will not blindly pursue the highest quality primary schools if their expected home value premium is too high.This is because the real utility that primary school teaching can have for students deviates from families’ expected utility,and the higher the quality of the primary school,the greater the likelihood that the deviation will be.Using 47 cities with relatively high economic levels from 2006-2019 as the research sample,this paper verifies that urban primary school teacher-student ratios have a non-linear effect on house prices,using urban primary school teacher-student ratios as a measure of school quality,and introduces psychological expectation theory,using previous primary school quality as the value of households’ psychological expectations,to verify the effect of lagged one-period and lagged two-period primary school teacher-student ratios on house prices.According to the baseline regression,there is no significant effect of the current primary school teacher-student ratio on house prices,and there is an inverted "U" shaped relationship between the one-period and two-period lags on house prices,with the ratio rising first and then falling.Further,this study introduces the variables of public service provision and fertility intentions to see if they can moderate the effect of primary school quality on house prices.In particular,this study uses per capita regional public expenditure as a measure of overall urban public service provision.Using data from the 2013 CGSS survey,the question "If there were no policy restrictions,how many children would you like to have? The answer to the question "How many children would you like to have if there were no policy restrictions?" was used to measure urban fertility intentions against the corresponding prefecture-level cities.It is found that,in addition to having a significant positive effect on house prices,both urban public service provision and fertility intentions positively moderate the effect of primary school quality on house prices,i.e.the greater the per capita regional public expenditure and the higher the level of fertility intentions,the greater the effect of primary school quality on house prices.Finally,the paper verifies that: the extent of the effect of primary school quality on house prices varies across economic levels and population movements,with a greater effect in super tier 1 cities than under tier 1cities,but no significant effect of primary school quality on house prices under tier 2cities,while the extent of the effect of primary school quality on house prices is greater under population inflow cities than under the full sample,and no significant effect of primary school teacher-student ratio on house prices in population outflow cities.The reason why this paper considers the effect of lagged one-period and lagged two-period primary school teacher-student ratios on house prices is,on the one hand,because households use past school quality as a psychological expectation when selecting a suitable living environment,so this paper uses lagged primary school teacher-student ratios as the core explanatory variable.On the other hand,for most households,purchasing a home is a more cautious and lengthy thought process,and given that it takes up to six months for a property certificate to be issued,and is limited by other reasons such as time costs,some parents prefer to send their children to school one year earlier.As a result,the lag between the time a family selects a school district and the time they purchase a home may be extended,to about a two-period lag.The non-linear impact of primary school quality on house prices is due to the importance families place on their children’s education,and in the context of the ’school district’ system,buying a house near a quality primary school allows students to get an ’entry card’ to the school of their choice while at the same time The school environment can be improved.In addition,as the quality of schools varies,the uncertainty and volatility of the educational benefits that students can obtain from a school over six years of study is greater,and the likelihood that families’ expected and actual utility of the quality of schooling will deviate more from that of the better primary schools is greater."to the more ’safe’ second-tier quality primary schools.Finally,from a realistic perspective,the highest quality primary school resources are more scarce,are in constant short supply,and have more targeted admissions requirements that are too demanding for students and parents,so that families with average incomes will favour the more ’realistic’ higher quality schools.