Research On The Impact Of Media Publicity And Movement Control On The Spread Of The COVID-19

The COVID-19,a worldwide public health emergency,has been rated as pandemic by the World Health Organization.It has still not been properly controlled since its outbreak around the world in late 2019.The spread of the epidemic has not only impacted the synergistic development of globalization,but also posed a huge threat and loss to the safety of people’s lives and property worldwide.The epidemic has now killed more than six million people.And it caused a severe downturn in the global economy.As a pioneer in the prevention and control of this epidemic,China took a series of strict control measures at the beginning of the outbreak to effectively control the spread of the epidemic,rapidly reduce the number of new infections per day,and reduce the number of deaths and economic losses.This thesis therefore aims to analyze the main measures taken in the prevention and control of the epidemic,and study their mechanisms of action.By quantifying the relevant indicators,the thesis also makes practical suggestions for the government to better manage similar public health emergencies.This thesis divides the domestic epidemic development into three different stages based on the differences in strategic measures for epidemic prevention and control in China.At different stages,different implementation intensities of governmental prevention and control measures are studied and analyzed separately.In addition,the state transfer model of virus transmission was improved by defining closed contacted as a special category of the suspected.Based on the analysis of the epidemic development dataset,newspaper publicity dataset,and population movement dataset.It was found that the number of newspapers with the keywords "epidemic prevention and control" and "epidemic" changed significantly with the development trend of the epidemic.Similarly,the total number of domestic population movements also decreases in varying degrees with the outbreak and recurrence of the epidemic.Therefore,in this paper,we define a propaganda parameter firstly,to describe the intensity of government propaganda on a daily basis.Secondly,the intensity of travel control for two different populations,close contacts and overall,is considered based on the population movement volume.A population movement moderator is constructed.This thesis analyzes the correlation coefficient between close contacts and confirmed cases.Based on the population size in the main transmission areas of the epidemic,the total national passenger traffic is corrected to exclude the population movement that is not related to the transmission of the epidemic.The year-on-year change in population movement for each month in 2019 compared to 2018 is used as the baseline volume.The travel parameter is constructed by measuring the relative change in the number of population movements in 2020 and 2021.The larger the travel parameter,the stronger the control on population travel.By adding the above influencing variables,a SCEDR virus propagation model based on the dual strategy of media propaganda and travel control is constructed.Using kinetic simulations,the influence of the amount of official media propaganda and the reduction of population movement on the development of the epidemic is analyzed.The innovative point and feature of this thesis is the improvement of the epidemic model.This thesis validates the impact of human interventions on the spread of the COVID-19 from the dual dimensions of media publicity and movement control.From the government’s perspective,actionable suggestions are made for epidemic prevention and control.And it can provide theoretical support for the intensity of policy implementation through the threshold study of this thesis.Research can optimize effectiveness and reduce prevention and control costs.