| With the continuous development of information technology,the complexity of software projects and the size of development teams are also gradually expanding,which makes the development environment increasingly complex and difficult to manage.Software enterprises are actively using project management related technologies and methods to optimize and control the development process.Among the main influencing factors of software development projects,a good development plan is the key to determine whether the project can be successfully implemented.Unreasonable plans will lead to project delays,labor cost overruns,low product quality and other problems.Therefore,it is of great significance to make full use of historical project data,reasonably formulate development plans,and effectively evaluate and adjust plans based on the actual situation of domestic and foreign software enterprises.This paper takes the software project development plan as the research object,and combines the theoretical methods of project management and the related technologies of simulation modeling with the actual software project.Use theoretical methods to screen key factors from historical projects,discover the operation rules of the plan through system modeling and predict the new project plan,and use simulation to evaluate the feasibility of the new plan,so as to optimize and adjust the development plan more scientifically and effectively.The research mainly includes the following three aspects:(1)Based on the principle of analytic hierarchy process,firstly,evaluate the factors that affect the formulation and implementation of software project development plan,determine the relevant evaluation indicators and build a hierarchy.Then,the weight of each evaluation index is calculated using the analytic hierarchy process,and the main influencing factors,namely the key indicators required for system modeling,are obtained through comparison and screening.(2)Based on the machine learning theory and Python as the modeling language,input the key index data selected from the historical projects,use the short-term and short-term memory network algorithm(LSTM)to model the system,and finally build the software development plan duration estimation model.The model is used to predict the duration of three different plans of the new project,so as to determine the preliminary software development plan.(3)Based on the principle of Monte Carlo simulation method,Oracle Crystal Ball is used as the simulation tool to simulate the new development plan and the remaining development plan respectively in the project planning stage and the project operation stage.The plan is optimized and adjusted according to the sensitivity analysis in the simulation results,and finally the development plan that best meets the expectations is obtained.Through a series of research and application,the development plan with the best duration was selected by using the model,which was 7 days and 14 days shorter than the other two estimated duration.Then,in the project planning stage,the most likely duration of the development plan is reduced by 6 days through simulation.Finally,at the end of the project,the feasibility of the project plan was evaluated again through simulation.After adjustment and optimization,the project was successfully completed within the customer’s expectations.During the research and project application,the method of system modeling and simulation was used to provide help and-guidance for the feasibility evaluation of the actual software development plan.At the same time,it further proves that the combination of simulation modeling technology and project management theory has great development potential in solving project planning problems. |
