Research On Forecast Of Cold Chain Logistics Demand For Fresh Agricultural Products In Shanxi Province

With the improvement of people’s living standards coupled with the rapid rise of fresh produce e-commerce,consumers’ concern for agricultural products has gradually changed from addressing food and clothing to safety and health,and cold chain logistics is an important channel to ensure the quality of agricultural products,therefore,the development of fresh produce cold chain logistics has also received attention with people’s concern for the quality of agricultural products.As a province with a long history of agricultural cultivation in China,Shanxi Province not only has a unique location advantage,but also has abundant resources of agricultural products,which have a wide demand for cold chain logistics.Reliable cold chain logistics demand forecasting is a necessary condition for rational planning of the cold chain logistics system in the economic region,so it is imperative to forecast the cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in Shanxi Province.According to the actual situation of fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics development in Shanxi Province,the factors influencing the development of agricultural products cold chain logistics are selected from four aspects: economic development level,transportation capacity,humanities and cold chain logistics market scale,and the influencing indicators with high correlation degree are selected by using grey correlation analysis and substituted into the model for prediction.The grey prediction model,BP neural network model and grey neural network model were designed to compare the prediction effects of the three models and select the model with higher accuracy to forecast the demand for fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics in the next five years.In the fitting test,the data from 2012-2018 were used as the test data,and the relevant data from 2019-2021 were used as the test data,and the fitting effect of the three models was evaluated through the mean relative error and root mean squared error.From the test results of the three models,it can be found that the grey neural network model has a better fitting effect,so this model is chosen to forecast the demand for fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics in Shanxi Province in the next five years.The prediction results show that the cold chain demand for agricultural products in Shanxi Province will continue to grow in the next five years,but the growth rate is relatively slow.Based on the above research findings,and taking into account the current situation of the development of fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics in Shanxi Province,relevant suggestions are made to promote the development of fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics in Shanxi Province from four aspects: improving infrastructure construction,enhancing transportation capacity,cultivating professional talents and developing third-party cold chain logistics enterprises.