Research On The Statistical Measurement Of The Moderate Scale Of Government Debt In China

The economic crises and debt crises triggered by the "Asian Financial Crisis" and the "Subprime Mortgage Crisis" of the United States have highlighted the problems of government debt in many countries and have fallen into government debt dilemmas.The research on the scale of government debt has gradually become the focus of attention of governments and academic theories.This paper conducts a statistical measurement study on the scale of our country’s government debt.Firstly,it sorts out the relevant research viewpoints of domestic and foreign scholars,and then sorts out and analyzes the theory of our country’s government debt,which provides a theoretical basis for studying the moderate scale of our country’s government debt.Secondly,the research analyzed the current state of our country’s government debt scale,and compared the government debt scale and national economic growth rate of our country and some countries along the "Belt and Road".Thirdly,the mechanism of the influence of government debt on economic growth was analyzed,and the relationship between government debt and economic growth was preliminarily judged,and the construction of the moderate scale model of government debt in China was completed,which also laid a theoretical foundation for the study of the moderate scale of government debt in this article.Then,the macroeconomic data of our country’s government debt and economic growth for 25 years from 1995 to 2019 were selected,and the threshold regression model was used for research.Finally,combined with the previous research on the theory,current situation and measurement of the scale of our country’s government debt,the relevant conclusions about the moderate scale of our country’s government debt are drawn.The results show that:(1)The current average level of our country’s government debt scale is 35.25%,the average annual growth rate of our country’s total government debt is 0.18%,and the average growth rate of our country’s economy is 8.60%.At present,China’s economic growth rate is faster than the average annual growth rate of total government debt.(2)There is a moderate scale of government debt in our country,and the moderate scale of our country’s government debt is 33.92%,which is currently the moderate scale of government debt that is most conducive to our country’s economic growth rate.In general,the current scale of government debt in China has a positive impact on economic growth,which can reasonably expand the scale of government debt.