Analysis Of Corn Price Fluctuation And Its Influencing Factors In Liaoning Province

Corn is one of the bulk agricultural products.It plays an important role in feed production and agricultural product processing industry.It also has extensive use value in chemical,medical and other industries.Corn price is not only related to agriculture and rural development,but also closely related to China’s food security.In recent years,affected by policies and COVID-19 factors,there are abnormal fluctuations in corn prices.Northeast China is the main grain producing area in China.Corn is the main grain crop of farmers in Liaoning Province.The output of corn accounts for more than 70% of the total grain output of Liaoning Province all year round,and the planting area is as high as 69%.The healthy development of corn industry is not only helpful to maintain China’s food security,but also of great significance to stabilize the agricultural economy in Liaoning Province.Therefore,it is very necessary to further study the corn price fluctuation in Liaoning Province.On the basis of literature review and theoretical research,this paper summarizes the fluctuation law of corn price in Liaoning Province,and uses H-P filtering method to separate the corn price in Liaoning Province into trend component and periodic component,so as to explore the real situation of annual and quarterly price fluctuation of corn in Liaoning Province.At the same time,vector error correction model(VECM)is used to measure the cointegration relationship between corn expected price,feed production price index,corn planting area and corn price fluctuation in Liaoning Province;Using impulse response function,this paper further studies the factors affecting the fluctuation of corn price in Liaoning Province and its impact effect on corn price.The results show that the fluctuation frequency of corn price in Liaoning Province is high,the amplitude is medium and weak,and the contraction period is greater than the expansion period.Corn price is obviously affected by itself,the expected price has a greater impact on corn price,and the feed price has a significant impact on the fluctuation of corn price in China.In terms of corn supply,planting area has a certain impact on corn price.In view of this,for stabilizing the corn price in Liaoning Province,maintaining national food security and economic recovery after the epidemic,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first,improve the market information service.2、 Give full play to the organizations of industrial organizations and trade associations.3、 Ensure the stability of pig food ratio.4、 Stabilize the sown area of corn.