Research On The Influence Of The International Economic Great Cycle On Domestic Economic Great Cycle

After the financial crisis,the world economy grew slowly and the trend of globalization was hindered.Income inequality is increasing around the world,and overall unemployment is rising;Trade protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise again.In addition,the spread of COVID-19 around the world has hindered international exchanges,increased uncertainty and instability in the international environment,and reduced international trade and investment activities.In such an international context,China’s previous "export-oriented" economy is affected by factors such as the deterioration of international trade environment and the sluggish world economy.It will become difficult to rely on external demand to drive the sustained and healthy development of domestic economy.These dilemmas reversed transmission in China focus on domestic demand,fully tap the potential for domestic,tap the potential of domestic demand,give full play to the strength of the large domestic market,and implement the "dual-cycle" development strategy,transformation of "export-oriented" strategy to reduce dependence on trade,speed up the formation is given priority to with domestic large cycle of domestic and international binary mutually promote new development pattern of "binary" This is a necessary choice to ensure the sound and sustainable development of China’s economy.The new pattern of development focuses on the development of the domestic economic cycle,mainly by expanding the scale of consumption and improving the capacity for technological innovation to improve the level of internal cycle.The new pattern of development has development emphasis,but the international economic cycle is still important to the economy.In this paper,a bidirectional fixed effect model is constructed to measure the domestic and international economic macrocycle levels by referring to relevant literature,and the model is introduced for empirical analysis to explore the influence direction and effect of the international economic macrocycle level on the domestic economic macrocycle.Through technology spillover effect,learning effect and innovation driven effect mechanism,the international economic cycle can improve the level of domestic innovation and stimulate the growth of consumer expenditure,thus promoting the level of international economic cycle.Through the empirical analysis,the international economic cycle has a nonlinear effect on the domestic economic cycle with consumption expenditure as the threshold variable.Technological innovation plays a moderating role in the process of international cycle affecting domestic cycle.According to the results,corresponding suggestions can be put forward from three aspects:improving the international economic level,increasing the consumption expenditure and improving the domestic innovation level to improve the domestic economic cycle level.