Research On The Evolution Of Global Central Bank Currency Swap Network And Its Influence Mechanism

The outbreak of global financial crisis promoted the prosperity of central bank currency swap,and the currency swap system among central banks was interwoven and formed a typical complex network structure.This thesis innovatively introduces the complex network theory into the research of central bank currency swap and explores the evolution and formation mechanism of central bank currency swap network.Based on this,this thesis uses the currency swap data of central banks from 2009 to 2020 to construct the currency swap network of central banks,explores the current evolution characteristics of the currency swap network of central banks,and finds out the factors that may affect the establishment of currency swap relationship between central banks.This thesis analyzes the overall network structure characteristics and local network characteristics of central bank currency swap network by using network analysis method,and analyzes the internal structural factors and exogenous factors affecting the establishment of currency swap relationship between central banks by using TERGM from the perspective of time variation.At the same time,this thesis will further analyze the potential impact of the central bank’s currency swap network.In the analysis of the overall,component and micro-level of the central bank’s currency swap network,it is found that in recent years,the network density,network size,network center potential and other network indicators of the central bank’s currency swap network have increased,the overall currency swap network shows a gradual trend of expansion,and the phenomenon of establishing currency swap relationship between central banks is increasingly common.In the currency swap network of central banks,the People’s Bank of China,the Central bank of the United States,the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are all in a strong position and have strong influence and control over the overall network structure.In addition,the current global currency swap also presents significant spatial geography and economic agglomeration characteristics,but the overall depth and level of swap cooperation between central banks are still insufficient.In the research on the formation mechanism of central bank currency swap network,it is found that the formation of currency swap relationship between central banks and the evolution of network structure not only depends on exogenous factors such as the national characteristics and bilateral associations of currency swap subjects,but also depends on the internal structure characteristics of the network.Specifically,the currency swap network tends to expand around the "super nodes" such as the People’s Bank of China,the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank,forming an obvious "core-edge" star structure.Most central banks in the network do not directly establish currency swap relationship with each other,but indirectly through the intermediary of the third party central bank.In addition,the closer the economic connection between currency swap subjects,the closer their language,geographical location and economic development level are,the more likely they are to establish currency swap relationship.However,with the passage of time and the expansion of swap scope,currency swap cooperation between central banks gradually breaks through the restrictions of language and geographical location and develops toward the trend of "globalization".In the empirical study of the foreign exchange reserve relationship with currency swap,it is found that there is a significant substitution relationship between the position of central bank in the currency swap network and its own foreign exchange reserves,especially for the developing countries that lack foreign exchange reserves,the effect of currency swap on replenishing foreign exchange reserves is more obvious.This indicates that existing studies only base on a limited sample of countries and investigate the impact of swap relationship on foreign exchange reserves,which may seriously underestimate the swap effect under the background of the increasingly complicated currency swap network of central banks.This thesis confirms that the internal structure of the network and exogenous factors are important drivers for the formation of currency swap relationship,and the potential impact of the network development of central bank currency swap.From the perspective of complex network,the study enriches the motivation and potential impact of central bank currency swap,and provides suggestions and countermeasures for the development of China’s currency swap.