The Agricultural Trade Network Structure And Evolution Mechanism Research Of RCEP Member Countries

Food security is the foundation of a country or region’s economic development and stable livelihood.In the context of the continuous improvement of economic and trade integration,the international agricultural trade coordinated with the financial development system can better achieve the effective allocation of agricultural resources,thus ensuring the food security of one country and even many countries.Therefore,as the key and difficult point in the negotiation of multilateral trade agreements,agricultural trade based on the perspective of financial development has increasingly prominent research value and practical significance under the background of the formal entry into force of RCEP.It is a key theme for China to actively explore multilateral cooperation relations and promote the construction of regional economic and trade integration.At present,the academic community has paid relatively little attention to the RCEP agreement that will enter into force on January 1,2022,especially the lack of multi-level characterization of the trade structure from the perspective of financial development,and a more systematic perspective of trade structure research needs to be deepened.On the basis of previous studies,considering the shortcomings of classical research methods in the study of international trade structure,this paper applies complex network analysis method and its related empirical model to construct and analyze the network of agricultural trade relations among RCEP member countries,and explores the impact of financial development level.Firstly,this paper quantifies the overall network attributes and the single node attributes by constructing indicators to examine the dynamic evolution characteristics of agricultural trade network since the RCEP protocol was proposed.Further,the basic trade unit analysis and agricultural trade group identification are used to further explore the internal structure of the network and its dynamic changes,and the multi-level internal structure of the RCEP agricultural trade network is deeply analyzed to construct a scientific and reasonable agricultural trade structure analysis system.Finally,in order to realize the analysis of the endogenous and exogenous influence mechanism of the above-mentioned network structure evolution process,this paper uses Exponential Random Graph Models(ERGM)and Quadratic Assignment Procedure(QAP)to empirically analyze the mechanism of the formation and structural change of the RCEP agricultural product trade network relationship from the structural dimension and the time dimension respectively.The study found that: First,the agricultural trade network of RCEP member countries has a good trade foundation and evolution trend,and the hierarchical differences in trade status between countries have gradually weakened,and gradually formed a multi-center pattern that benefits multiple parties.Second,from a dynamic perspective,there is a deferred correlation between the network structures of RCEP over the years.There are both clustering effects and multi-connectivity effects on the endogenous structure,as well as time-dependent effects.This mechanism promotes the formation and development of the RCEP agricultural trade structure,and promotes the integration and cohesion of the RCEP agricultural trade network from a bottom-up structural perspective.Third,national demand scale and cultural background gap has effectively strengthened the cohesion of RCEP agricultural trade network.With the progress and development of agricultural industry,the restriction of traditional agriculture on agricultural area and trade barriers has been broken,thus the factor of per capita cultivated land area and the economic gap between countries no longer have a significant impact.It is worth noting that due to the changes in financing costs and trade spreads brought about by the complexity of trade financing structure,the development level of finance has an inhibitory effect on the formation of agricultural trade relations.Further,the difference in the development depth of finance between countries has a positive impact on the deepening of the agricultural trade network structure.Fourth,China has achieved a prominent intermediary position in the agricultural trade network in the RCEP region by virtue of the advantage of trade volume,but it still has a long way to go to grow into a dominant and central country in agricultural trade.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward targeted suggestions from three aspects.First of all,considering the outstanding trade bridge role played by China in the RCEP region,China should take the above deficiencies as the entry point for closer regional cooperation,actively give full play to the advantages of agricultural resource scheduling,and work with other member countries to explore the formation and development of more efficient trade relations.Pay attention to the role and status evolution of agricultural trade groups within the RCEP region,and make full use of the higher trade linkage effect within the group to maximize the implementation effect of diversification policies for member countries.Furthermore,considering the clustering effect,multi-connectivity effect and time-delay characteristics of the trade structure of agricultural products in RCEP,the stability of the trade structure needs to be broken through layer by layer,which requires China to adhere to diversified development,adhere to the better combination of opening to developed countries and opening to developing countries,multilateral opening and regional opening,and promote the improvement of the efficiency of agricultural trade in the region with good multilateral exchanges on the demand side and the supply side.Thirdly,considering the significant impact of the depth of financial development,China should actively upgrade financial institutions to cooperate with the improvement of international trade financing channels,and do a good job in the supervision and prevention of risks so as to effectively avoid the negative impact of the complexity of the development of financial institutions.Finally,this paper argues that it is a scientific and reasonable policy entry point to transform the huge population demand scale into an effective driving force to stimulate agricultural development and agricultural trade.This requires China to further strengthen its own agricultural foundation,absorb the advanced agricultural technology and development experience of other countries,and enhance the comprehensive strength of agriculture through technical trade measures.