PPP Project Capital Structure Decision Under Uncertain Condition

PPP model is one of the important forms of infrastructure and public utilities supply in China.At present,PPP projects in China are in the transformation and development period from quantity to quality.Project financing is an important prerequisite for carrying out PPP projects,and determining the capital structure of the project is the primary problem of project financing.The capital structure of PPP projects directly affects the project financing cost and the distribution of future income.Increasing the proportion of debt fund can make the project obtain tax benefits through tax shield effect,and at the same time increase the financial risk and bankruptcy risk of SPV.The unreasonable capital structure affects the whole life cycle of the project,especially the operation and loan repayment in the later period,which makes it impossible for THE PPP project to achieve the expected goals and difficult to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of THE PPP project.There is a reasonable choice between equity financing and debt financing,that is,the optimal decision of capital structure.In addition,there is a high degree of uncertainty in the implementation environment of PPP projects,and many uncertainties in the construction and long-term operation process will affect the decision of the capital structure of PPP projects.Therefore,how to make decisions on the capital structure of PPP projects under uncertain conditions is particularly necessary and important.Paper first through a lot of the core of literature at home and abroad and the typical case analysis of financing,establishes an index system of the capital structure influencing factor of the PPP projects,and the influence factors of risk factors for identification and then converted into qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes of the change of the uncertain parameters,through the transformation of quantitative risk factors affect the capital structure decision.Then the weight of index of influence factors is calculated by means of set-value statistics,and the reliability of index weight is analyzed by means of confidence degree and variance method.Then,based on the variation characteristics of uncertain parameters in practical engineering,interval number theory is introduced to build a multi-index grey target decision-making model under uncertain conditions.Finally,empirical analysis is carried out based on actual cases to verify the scientificity and reliability of the model.In establishing the decision-making model of PPP project capital structure,qualitative and quantitative indicators are considered comprehensively,and the influence of future changes of uncertain factors on the decision-making of capital structure is taken into account from a dynamic perspective,so as to make up for the shortcomings existing in previous studies and provide references for subsequent research and practice.