The Influence Of Managerial Tone On Stock Market Trading In Bull Market And Bear Market

With the continuous development of China’s capital market in the marketoriented reform and the continuous improvement of the regulatory system,domestic investors have a strong demand for information related to the capital market,and there is a vast amount of information in the investment market.With the development of computer text mining technology,it is possible to analyze massive text quantitatively under big data.In addition to the quantitative information disclosed by various types of financial texts,such as quarterly reports of listed companies,financial media reports,Internet microblog post bar,more and more researchers at home and abroad extract the emotions and intonation contained in annual reports,news reports and social media posts of listed companies through text analysis methods,and have also obtained rich research results,which is a great help The financial data of quantitative analysis with statement structure is not available.In this paper,"intonation" is introduced into the text research of management discussion and analysis of listed companies.Using the "dictionary method",which is the current mainstream emotional analysis method,the intonation of nearly 10000 annual reports of listed companies from 2013 to 2016 is quantified through a series of steps,such as crawling text,preprocessing text data,dictionary construction,word frequency statistics and so on.After that,a panel regression model is established to empirically analyze the relationship between management text intonation and stock market trading by analyzing the main board of Shanghai Stock Exchange,Shenzhen Stock Exchange,the small and medium-sized board and the growth enterprise board.The research shows that although the net intonation of the annual quarterly reports of the main board of Shanghai Stock Exchange,Shenzhen Stock Exchange,the small and medium-sized board and the growth enterprise board are all positive,that is,the overall management discussion and analysis tend to be positive and optimistic,but the research finds that the higher the net intonation of the annual quarterly reports,the greater the impact on the stock market activity.The net tone of the management’s discussion and analysis text has no effect on the daily return,except that the Shenzhen main board has an effect at the significant level of 10%.On the other hand,the coefficient of tone of management discussion and analysis in bull market is larger than that in bear market,which indicates that there is a significant asymmetry in the correlation between stock turnover and daily turnover in bull market and tone of management discussion and analysis text,that is,the influence of net tone of management discussion and analysis text on stock market activity in bull market is more obvious than that in bear market.